** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTAU05 APRF 051256 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1255UTC 5 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal zero degrees South [17.0S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E] Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 35 knots. Central pressure: 988hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in southwest quadrant. FORECAST Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in southwest quadrant: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1200 UTC 6 April. At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.8 South 115.6 East Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 18.9 South 114.9 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 05 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 051256 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1255UTC 5 APRIL 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hubert located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal zero degrees South [17.0S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E] Recent movement : south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 35 knots. Central pressure: 988hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in southwest quadrant. FORECAST Within 70 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 100 nautical miles in southwest quadrant: Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre by 1200 UTC 6 April. At 0000 UTC 06 April: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.8 South 115.6 East Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 06 April: Within 80 nautical miles of 18.9 South 114.9 East Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 05 April 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUBERT) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 116.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 116.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 17.9S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 18.6S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 19.3S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 19.9S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 21.1S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 116.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21S (HUBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE MASS CONSOLIDATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND AS IT TRAVERSES VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STORM WILL WEAKEN BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHARP GRADIENTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//