** WTIN20 DEMS 280648 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTAU06 APRF 280702 *** IDW23200 40:3:2:24:16S121E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 28 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude sixteen decimal zero degrees South [16.0S] Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal one degrees East [121.1E] Recent movement : West southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 100 knots. Central pressure : 925hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the centre by 0600UTC 29 March. FORECAST Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots, increasing to 120 knots by 0600UTC 29 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 40nm of centre by 0600UTC 29 March, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the centre by 0600UTC 29 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy swell. At 1800UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.6 South 119.6 East Central pressure 915hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 29 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.5 South 118.1 East Central pressure 905hPa. Winds to 120 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 28 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU06 APRF 280702 *** IDW23200 40:3:2:24:16S121E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0700UTC 28 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude sixteen decimal zero degrees South [16.0S] Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal one degrees East [121.1E] Recent movement : West southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 100 knots. Central pressure : 925hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the centre by 0600UTC 29 March. FORECAST Sustained winds near the centre to 100 knots, increasing to 120 knots by 0600UTC 29 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre, clockwise winds above 64 knots, phenomenal seas and heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles of centre increasing to within 40nm of centre by 0600UTC 29 March, clockwise winds above 48 knots, very high seas and heavy swell. Within 60 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 80 nautical miles of the centre by 0600UTC 29 March, winds above 35 knots with very rough seas and heavy swell. At 1800UTC 28 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.6 South 119.6 East Central pressure 915hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 29 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.5 South 118.1 East Central pressure 905hPa. Winds to 120 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 28 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GLENDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 121.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 121.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.4S 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 17.1S 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 18.1S 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.4S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 22.5S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 120.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GLENDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 20S CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR GREATER AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH AN EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. BY TAU 48, TC 20S WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//