** WTAU05 APRF 251904 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S111E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1901UTC 25 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal one South [19.1S] Longitude one hundred and eleven decimal five East [111.5E] Recent movement : Southeast at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 75 knots. Central pressure : 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 75 knots near the centre, weakening to 45 knots by 1800UTC 26 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre: winds above 64 knots until 0400UTC 26 March with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre: winds above 48 knots until 1500UTC 26 March with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 70 nautical miles of centre: winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 26 March: 20.1 south 112.0 east Central pressure 970 hPa Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 26 March: 21.2 south 112.6 east Central pressure 985 hPa Winds to 45 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 26 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 251904 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:19S111E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1901UTC 25 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal one South [19.1S] Longitude one hundred and eleven decimal five East [111.5E] Recent movement : Southeast at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 75 knots. Central pressure : 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 75 knots near the centre, weakening to 45 knots by 1800UTC 26 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre: winds above 64 knots until 0400UTC 26 March with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre: winds above 48 knots until 1500UTC 26 March with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 70 nautical miles of centre: winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 26 March: 20.1 south 112.0 east Central pressure 970 hPa Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 26 March: 21.2 south 112.6 east Central pressure 985 hPa Winds to 45 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 26 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.0S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.0S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 22.1S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.1S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 112.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. A 251724Z TRMM PASS REVEALS A BROKEN RING OF CONVEC- TION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MOST CONVECTION WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19S IS LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS IS SHRINKING. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTAU03 ADRM 252236 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:15S126E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 2230 UTC 25 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 2100 UTC TROPICAL LOW 998 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.0 S 126.0 E MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/35 KNOTS WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0900 UTC 26 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.0 S 124.6 E. 994 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 2100 UTC 26 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.1 S 123.8 E. 990 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 252236 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:15S126E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 2230 UTC 25 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 2100 UTC TROPICAL LOW 998 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.0 S 126.0 E MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/35 KNOTS WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0900 UTC 26 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.0 S 124.6 E. 994 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 2100 UTC 26 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 15.1 S 123.8 E. 990 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTXS21 PGTW 252300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/252251ZMAR2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 126.5E TO 15.4S 123.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. RADAR DATA AT 252100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 127.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CON- VECTION WRAPPING INWARD TOWARD A WELL-DEVELOPED, INLAND LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). WYNDHAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES PLACE THE LLCC ABOUT 50 NM FROM THE COAST, AND THE OVERALL MOTION CONTINUES AS A WESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DE- PICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE DISTURBANCE, PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES- SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. SINCE THE LLCC IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 262300Z.//