** WTIN20 DEMS 250630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-03-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 250630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-03-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTAU05 APRF 250650 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:18S110E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0646UTC 25 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal three South [18.3S] Longitude one hundred and ten decimal one East [110.1E] Recent movement : SE at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 85 knots. Central pressure : 955 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 85 knots near the centre, weakening to 50 knots by 0600UTC 26 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre: winds above 64 knots until 0000UTC 25 March with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre: winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre: winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 25 March: 19.3 south 111.3 east Central pressure 965 hPa Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 26 March: 20.5 south 112.0 east Central pressure 980 hPa Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 25 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 250650 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:18S110E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0646UTC 25 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal three South [18.3S] Longitude one hundred and ten decimal one East [110.1E] Recent movement : SE at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 85 knots. Central pressure : 955 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 85 knots near the centre, weakening to 50 knots by 0600UTC 26 March. Within 20 nautical miles of centre: winds above 64 knots until 0000UTC 25 March with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 35 nautical miles of centre: winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre: winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 25 March: 19.3 south 111.3 east Central pressure 965 hPa Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 26 March: 20.5 south 112.0 east Central pressure 980 hPa Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 25 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.0S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.3S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.2S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 110.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING TC 19S TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. TC 19S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 110.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.0S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.3S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6S 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.0S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 25.2S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 110.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING TC 19S TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12. TC 19S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//