** WTIN20 DEMS 240640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-03-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 13.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTAU05 APRF 240649 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:14S109E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0648UTC 24 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude fifteen decimal eight South [15.8S] Longitude one hundred and eight decimal three East [108.3E] Recent movement : S at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 100 knots. Central pressure : 920 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 100 knots near centre. Within 20 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 24 March: 16.6 south 108.3 east Central pressure 935 hPa Winds to 90 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 25 March: 17.5 south 108.6 east Central pressure 955 hPa Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 24 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 240649 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:14S109E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0648UTC 24 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude fifteen decimal eight South [15.8S] Longitude one hundred and eight decimal three East [108.3E] Recent movement : S at 6 knots. Maximum winds : 100 knots. Central pressure : 920 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 100 knots near centre. Within 20 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 24 March: 16.6 south 108.3 east Central pressure 935 hPa Winds to 90 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 25 March: 17.5 south 108.6 east Central pressure 955 hPa Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 24 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU01 ABRF 240658 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0658 UTC 24 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals was centred at 0600 UTC near 22.8 south 159.8 east moving south-southeast at 25 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 120 nm in Northwest quadrant and 220nm in remaining quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 40 nm of the centre in the northwest quadrant, and 100 nm in remaining quadrants. Winds reaching 64/75 knots within 35 nm of the centre. Seas high to phenomenal with heavy swells. Exceptionally high waves may be generated within 150 nm of the centre in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone as the system accelerates to the SSE. Forecast Positions At 24 1800 UTC 25.0 S 161.1 E with central pressure 970 hPa At 25 0600 UTC 27.7 S 162.9 E with central pressure 970 hPa REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued at 241200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 240658 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0658 UTC 24 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals was centred at 0600 UTC near 22.8 south 159.8 east moving south-southeast at 25 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 120 nm in Northwest quadrant and 220nm in remaining quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 40 nm of the centre in the northwest quadrant, and 100 nm in remaining quadrants. Winds reaching 64/75 knots within 35 nm of the centre. Seas high to phenomenal with heavy swells. Exceptionally high waves may be generated within 150 nm of the centre in the southeast quadrant of the cyclone as the system accelerates to the SSE. Forecast Positions At 24 1800 UTC 25.0 S 161.1 E with central pressure 970 hPa At 25 0600 UTC 27.7 S 162.9 E with central pressure 970 hPa REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued at 241200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 240658 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0658 UTC 24 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED AT 0600 UTC NEAR 22.8 SOUTH 159.8 EAST MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 120 NM IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 220NM IN REMAINING QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45/63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND 100 NM IN REMAINING QUADRANTS. WINDS REACHING 64/75 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NM OF THE CENTRE. SEAS HIGH TO PHENOMENAL WITH HEAVY SWELLS. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES MAY BE GENERATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE SSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 24 1800 UTC 25.0 S 161.1 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA AT 25 0600 UTC 27.7 S 162.9 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT 241200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 240658 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0658 UTC 24 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED AT 0600 UTC NEAR 22.8 SOUTH 159.8 EAST MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 120 NM IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 220NM IN REMAINING QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45/63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND 100 NM IN REMAINING QUADRANTS. WINDS REACHING 64/75 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NM OF THE CENTRE. SEAS HIGH TO PHENOMENAL WITH HEAVY SWELLS. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WAVES MAY BE GENERATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE SSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 24 1800 UTC 25.0 S 161.1 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA AT 25 0600 UTC 27.7 S 162.9 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT 241200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS32 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 159.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 159.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.7S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 27.9S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 160.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MIDLATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF TC 18P. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING IN THE AREA, AND COLD AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE STRENGTH, AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE SOUTH- EAST AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TRANSISTION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. FUTURE WARNINGS FROM JTWC WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 108.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 108.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 17.2S 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.2S 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.1S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.8S 109.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 21.5S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 108.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 19S WILL SLOW PAST TAU 36, SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. STORM IN- TENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS TC 19S TRACKS TOWARD HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//