** WTIN20 DEMS 230620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-03-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 14.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTAU01 ABRF 230637 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0637 UTC 23 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals centred at 0600 UTC at 19.4 south 155.5 east and moving southeast at 10 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 180 nm of the cyclone but extending out to 360 nm in the southwestern quadrant. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 60 nm of the centre, and 64/75 knots within 30 nm of the centre. Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy swells. Forecast positions: At 23 1800 UTC 20.4 S 156.3 E with central pressure 960 hPa At 24 0600 UTC 21.8 S 157.6 E with central pressure 960 hPa REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230637 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0637 UTC 23 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati with a central pressure of 960 hectopascals centred at 0600 UTC at 19.4 south 155.5 east and moving southeast at 10 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 180 nm of the cyclone but extending out to 360 nm in the southwestern quadrant. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots, increasing to 45/63 knots within 60 nm of the centre, and 64/75 knots within 30 nm of the centre. Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy swells. Forecast positions: At 23 1800 UTC 20.4 S 156.3 E with central pressure 960 hPa At 24 0600 UTC 21.8 S 157.6 E with central pressure 960 hPa REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230637 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0637 UTC 23 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 0600 UTC AT 19.4 SOUTH 155.5 EAST AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CYCLONE BUT EXTENDING OUT TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45/63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND 64/75 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTRE. SEAS HIGH TO PHENOMENAL AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITIONS: AT 23 1800 UTC 20.4 S 156.3 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AT 24 0600 UTC 21.8 S 157.6 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230637 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0637 UTC 23 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 0600 UTC AT 19.4 SOUTH 155.5 EAST AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CYCLONE BUT EXTENDING OUT TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45/63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND 64/75 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTRE. SEAS HIGH TO PHENOMENAL AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FORECAST POSITIONS: AT 23 1800 UTC 20.4 S 156.3 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA AT 24 0600 UTC 21.8 S 157.6 E WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HPA REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU05 APRF 230646 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:13S110E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 23 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal five South [13.5S] Longitude one hundred and nine decimal six East [109.6E] Recent movement : SW at 7 knots. Maximum winds : 70 knots. Central pressure : 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 70 knots near centre, increasing to as much as 80 knots overnight. Within 15 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 70 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 23 March: 14.1 south 108.4 east Central pressure 948 hPa Winds to 80 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 24 March: 15.1 south 107.7 east Central pressure 956 hPa Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 23 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 230646 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:13S110E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 23 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal five South [13.5S] Longitude one hundred and nine decimal six East [109.6E] Recent movement : SW at 7 knots. Maximum winds : 70 knots. Central pressure : 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 70 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 70 knots near centre, increasing to as much as 80 knots overnight. Within 15 nautical miles of centre winds above 64 knots with very high to phenomenal seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 30 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 70 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 23 March: 14.1 south 108.4 east Central pressure 948 hPa Winds to 80 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 24 March: 15.1 south 107.7 east Central pressure 956 hPa Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 23 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPS32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 155.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 155.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.5S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.9S 158.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.7S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 29.2S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 155.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN THE TASMAN SEA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300 AND 240900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 109.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 109.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.6S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.6S 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 16.6S 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.8S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 19.6S 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 109.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. INTENS- ITY WILL STEADILY DECREASE ON THE STORM AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANS- ITION NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//