** WTIN20 DEMS 220602 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK --------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) REGION AT 200 HPA(.) ** WTAU05 APRF 220643 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S113E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 22 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal three South [13.3S] Longitude one hundred and twelve decimal eight East [112.8E] Recent movement : W at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 50 knots. Central pressure : 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 50 knots near centre increasing to 70 knots by 23/0600UTC. Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds increasing to above 64 knots with very high seas and moderate to heavy swell developing by 23/0600UTC. Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 22 March: 13.6 south 110.8 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 23 March: 13.7 south 108.9 east Central pressure 962 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 22 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 220643 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S113E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0643UTC 22 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal three South [13.3S] Longitude one hundred and twelve decimal eight East [112.8E] Recent movement : W at 8 knots. Maximum winds : 50 knots. Central pressure : 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Sustained winds to 50 knots near centre increasing to 70 knots by 23/0600UTC. Within 25 nautical miles of centre winds increasing to above 64 knots with very high seas and moderate to heavy swell developing by 23/0600UTC. Within 40 nautical miles of centre winds above 48 knots with high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 80 nautical miles of centre winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 22 March: 13.6 south 110.8 east Central pressure 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 23 March: 13.7 south 108.9 east Central pressure 962 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 22 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU01 ABRF 220712 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0711 UTC 22 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 955 hectopascals centred at 220600UTC near 18.1S 153.7E and moving south-southwest at 4 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 170nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semicircle and within 80nm in the northern semicircle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 170nm of the cyclone in the southeast quadrant, extending to the southern semicircle during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 80nm of the cyclone otherwise. Maximum winds to 85 knots within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 95 knots near the centre during the next 24 hours. Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy east and southeast swells. Forecast positions: Near 18.4S 153.4E at 221800UTC Near 18.8S 153.5E at 230600UTC REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 221200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 220712 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0711 UTC 22 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 955 hectopascals centred at 220600UTC near 18.1S 153.7E and moving south-southwest at 4 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 170nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semicircle and within 80nm in the northern semicircle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 170nm of the cyclone in the southeast quadrant, extending to the southern semicircle during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 80nm of the cyclone otherwise. Maximum winds to 85 knots within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 95 knots near the centre during the next 24 hours. Seas high to phenomenal and moderate to heavy east and southeast swells. Forecast positions: Near 18.4S 153.4E at 221800UTC Near 18.8S 153.5E at 230600UTC REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 221200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 220712 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0711 UTC 22 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 220600UTC NEAR 18.1S 153.7E AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 170NM OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 170NM OF THE CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 80NM OF THE CYCLONE OTHERWISE. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 85 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS HIGH TO PHENOMENAL AND MODERATE TO HEAVY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS. FORECAST POSITIONS: NEAR 18.4S 153.4E AT 221800UTC NEAR 18.8S 153.5E AT 230600UTC REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 221200 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 153.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 153.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.4S 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.9S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.7S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.2S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.0S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOVEMENT OF TC 18P HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A RIDGE SITUATED OVER VANUATU AND FIJI WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL INCREASE AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES, HOWEVER STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPS32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 153.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 153.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 18.4S 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.9S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.7S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.2S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.0S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 153.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOVEMENT OF TC 18P HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A RIDGE SITUATED OVER VANUATU AND FIJI WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL INCREASE AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES, HOWEVER STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD INTO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTXS31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210221Z MAR 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 112.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 112.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.4S 110.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.5S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 14.1S 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 15.0S 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 16.8S 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 112.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE AND CAUSE TC 19S TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AT A NEAR CLIMATO- LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVOR- ABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// BT #0001