** WTIN20 DEMS 210627 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND COMORIN (.) RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 14.5 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA(.) ** WTAU05 APRF 210653 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0646UTC 21 MARCH 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal five South [12.5S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero East [116.0E] Recent movement : SW at 5 knots. Maximum winds : 40 knots. Central pressure : 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: Winds increasing to 45/50 knots by 22/0600UTC with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles: Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 21 March: 12.8 south 115.2 east Central pressure 984 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 22 March: 13.3 south 113.6 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 21 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 210653 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0646UTC 21 MARCH 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Floyd located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal five South [12.5S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero East [116.0E] Recent movement : SW at 5 knots. Maximum winds : 40 knots. Central pressure : 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: Winds increasing to 45/50 knots by 22/0600UTC with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles: Winds above 34 knots with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1800UTC 21 March: 12.8 south 115.2 east Central pressure 984 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 22 March: 13.3 south 113.6 east Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300UTC 21 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU01 ABRF 210724 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 21 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at 210600UTC near 17.8S 154.9E and moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 240nm of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and within 100nm in remaining quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100nm of the cyclone, extending to 240nm in the southwest quadrant within the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 60 knots within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 80 knots near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast positions: Near 18.0S 153.5E at 211800UTC Near 18.3S 152.7E at 220600UTC REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 211300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 210724 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 21 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Wati with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at 210600UTC near 17.8S 154.9E and moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position good. AREA AFFECTED Within 240nm of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and within 100nm in remaining quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100nm of the cyclone, extending to 240nm in the southwest quadrant within the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum winds to 60 knots within 25 nm of the centre, increasing to 80 knots near the centre during the next 24 hours. Forecast positions: Near 18.0S 153.5E at 211800UTC Near 18.3S 152.7E at 220600UTC REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. Next warning will be issued by 211300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 210724 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0724 UTC 21 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 210600UTC NEAR 17.8S 154.9E AND MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 240NM OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100NM IN REMAINING QUADRANTS. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100NM OF THE CYCLONE, EXTENDING TO 240NM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NM OF THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS: NEAR 18.0S 153.5E AT 211800UTC NEAR 18.3S 152.7E AT 220600UTC REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732200221 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY 211300 UTC. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS32 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 154.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 154.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.2S 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.6S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.0S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.8S 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.5S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 154.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER OUTFLOW REMAINS INHIBITED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 18P IS BEING STEERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BARRIER REEF AND AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER VANUATU. THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAS KEPT TC 18P ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEA- KEN AND THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE WILL REORIENT NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EQUATORWARD OF NEW ZEALAND. THIS CHANGE IN RIDGE ORIENTATION WILL MODIFY THE STEERING FLOW, CAUSING A RECURVATURE. ONCE TC 18P MOVES OUT OF THE TURN, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER FAVOR- ABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER ONCE IT BEGINS TRACKING POLEWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// BT #0001 ** WTXS31 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210221Z MAR 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FLOYD) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 115.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 115.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 12.8S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 13.2S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.6S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 13.9S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 115.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FLOYD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210221Z MAR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//