** WTAU01 ABRF 191812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1811 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191200 UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing. AREA AFFECTED Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots At 201200 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 191812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1811 UTC 19 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 191200 UTC NEAR 17.5S 147.0 AND MOVING WESTWARDS AT 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERLAND BY 200000UTC WITH WINDS EASING. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 180NM OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50NM OF THE CENTRE AND MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 100 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL ON A HEAVY SWELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200600 UTC NEAR 17.6S 144.0E OVERLAND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS AT 201200 UTC NEAR 18.1S 140.7E WITH WINDS BELOW 35 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 191812 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1811 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191200 UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing. AREA AFFECTED Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots At 201200 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU05 APRF 191825 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:AASBBBE999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1823UTC 19 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION Tropical low with central pressure 1000 hpa located at 1800UTC within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] moving south southwest at 3 knots. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 20 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.7 South 117.2 East Central pressure 998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 12.2 South 116.5 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 20 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 191825 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:AASBBBE999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1823UTC 19 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION Tropical low with central pressure 1000 hpa located at 1800UTC within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] moving south southwest at 3 knots. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 20 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.7 South 117.2 East Central pressure 998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 12.2 South 116.5 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 20 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPS01 NFFN 191800 *** Storm Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1912 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati [987hPa] centre was located near 16.7 South 161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.7S 161.7E at 191800 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest at 16 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 17.9S 159.3E at 200600 UTC and near 18.4S 157.1E at 201800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 010. ** WTPS01 NFFN 191800 *** Storm Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1912 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati [987hPa] centre was located near 16.7 South 161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.7S 161.7E at 191800 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest at 16 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 17.9S 159.3E at 200600 UTC and near 18.4S 157.1E at 201800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 010. ** WTPS11 NFFN 191800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/2001 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [987hPa] was located near 16.7 South 161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and 1638Z TMI pass. Cyclone moving west-southwest 16 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 45 knots increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC underneath a slowly developing CDO. Overall organisation gradually improving. Outflow good in northern semicircle but still restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6 and adding 0.5 to DT for white band, yielding DT=3.5, MET=3.5 and PT=3.0. FT based on PT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24hrs. Wati has moved in the vicinity of a 250hPa outflow. Vertical wind shear around 10 to 20 knots and Wati is expected to remain in a moderately sheared environment. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is being steered west-southwest by a deep mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady west-southwest track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 200600 UTC near 17.9S 159.3E mov WSW 13kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 201800 UTC near 18.4S 157.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 210600 UTC near 18.8S 155.5E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.5S 154.4E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued around 200200UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 191800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/2001 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [987hPa] was located near 16.7 South 161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and 1638Z TMI pass. Cyclone moving west-southwest 16 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 45 knots increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC underneath a slowly developing CDO. Overall organisation gradually improving. Outflow good in northern semicircle but still restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6 and adding 0.5 to DT for white band, yielding DT=3.5, MET=3.5 and PT=3.0. FT based on PT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24hrs. Wati has moved in the vicinity of a 250hPa outflow. Vertical wind shear around 10 to 20 knots and Wati is expected to remain in a moderately sheared environment. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is being steered west-southwest by a deep mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady west-southwest track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 200600 UTC near 17.9S 159.3E mov WSW 13kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 201800 UTC near 18.4S 157.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 210600 UTC near 18.8S 155.5E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.5S 154.4E mov WSW 10kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued around 200200UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 191800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 19/2001 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7 SOUTH 161.7 EAST AT 191800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 1638Z TMI PASS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 16 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. LLCC UNDERNEATH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CDO. OVERALL ORGANISATION GRADUALLY IMPROVING. OUTFLOW GOOD IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT STILL RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LOG10 SPIRAL WRAP OF .6 AND ADDING 0.5 TO DT FOR WHITE BAND, YIELDING DT=3.5, MET=3.5 AND PT= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 191800 *** PART 02 3.0. FT BASED ON PT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. WATI HAS MOVED IN THE VICINITY OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WATI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 TO 30C. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A DEEP MEAN NORTHEAST FLOW DRIVEN BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC NEAR 17.9S 159.3E MOV WSW 13KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC NEAR 18.4S 157.1E MOV WSW 12KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC NEAR 18.8S 155.5E MOV WSW 10KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC NEAR 19.5S 154.4E MOV WSW 10KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WATI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200200UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTAU01 ABRF 192008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800 UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing. AREA AFFECTED Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots At 201800 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 192008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800 UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing. AREA AFFECTED Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots At 201800 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 192008 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 191800 UTC NEAR 17.5S 147.0 AND MOVING WESTWARDS AT 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERLAND BY 200000UTC WITH WINDS EASING. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 180NM OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50NM OF THE CENTRE AND MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 100 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL ON A HEAVY SWELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200600 UTC NEAR 17.6S 144.0E OVERLAND WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS AT 201800 UTC NEAR 18.1S 140.7E WITH WINDS BELOW 35 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS32 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZMAR2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 161.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 161.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 18.0S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.9S 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.3S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 19.4S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.2S 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 161.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW FROM TC 17P IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WATI. THIS IS LIMITING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TC 18P WITH ONLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 18P WILL SLOW IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW 192100) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191952ZMAR2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 146.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 146.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.7S 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.2S 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 146.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR INNISFAIL, AUSTRALIA IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS. TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW 192100) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//