** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 191200 *** Gale Warning 010 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1304 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati [995hPa] centre was located near 15.9 South 163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.9S 163.2E at 191200 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest at 13 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 16.7S 160.7E at 200000 UTC and near 17.9S 158.0E at 201200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 009. ** WTPS01 NFFN 191200 *** Gale Warning 010 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1304 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati [995hPa] centre was located near 15.9 South 163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 15.9S 163.2E at 191200 UTC. Cyclone moving west-southwest at 13 knots. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. Forecast position near 16.7S 160.7E at 200000 UTC and near 17.9S 158.0E at 201200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 009. ** WTAU01 ABRF 191309 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1308 UTC 19 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 191200 UTC NEAR 17.5S 148.3 AND MOVING WESTWARDS AT 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 250NM OF THE LOW CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INCREASING TO 250 NM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50NM OF THE CENTRE AND MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 100 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL ON A HEAVY SWELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200000 UTC NEAR 17.5S 145.6E WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS AT 201200 UTC NEAR 18.0S 142.6E WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 KNOTS OVER LAND. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 191309 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1308 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 191200 UTC near 17.5S 148.3 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing to 250 nm during the next 6 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200000 UTC near 17.5S 145.6E with maximum winds 100 knots At 201200 UTC near 18.0S 142.6E with maximum winds near 60 knots over land. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 191309 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1308 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 191200 UTC near 17.5S 148.3 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing to 250 nm during the next 6 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 200000 UTC near 17.5S 145.6E with maximum winds 100 knots At 201200 UTC near 18.0S 142.6E with maximum winds near 60 knots over land. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU05 APRF 191312 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:AASBBBE999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1307UTC 19 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION Tropical low with central pressure 1000 hpa located at 1200UTC within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal four degrees South [11.4S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal five degrees East [118.3E] moving west at 3 knots. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000UTC 20 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.5 South 117.6 East Central pressure 998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 12.0 South 116.9 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 19 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 191312 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:AASBBBE999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1307UTC 19 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION Tropical low with central pressure 1000 hpa located at 1200UTC within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal four degrees South [11.4S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal five degrees East [118.3E] moving west at 3 knots. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 90 nautical miles in northern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000UTC 20 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 11.5 South 117.6 East Central pressure 998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 12.0 South 116.9 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 19 March 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPS11 NFFN 191200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1408 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [995hPa] was located near 15.9 South 163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving west-southwest 13 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 35 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC now underneath the developing CDO. Overall organisation steadily improving. Deep convection about central area steadily increased and cooled past 12 hours. Outflow good to north but still restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6, yielding DT=3.0. MET and PT agree at 3.0. Thus, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. Wati lies just to the north of the 250 hPa ridge axis. Vertical wind shear around 15 to 25 knots but anticipated to decrease gradually. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is beeing steered west-southwest by a deep mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady west-southwest track with slight, further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 200000 UTC near 16.7S 160.7E mov WSW 13kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 201200 UTC near 17.9S 158.0E mov WSW 13kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 210000 UTC near 18.8S 156.0E mov WSW 12kt with 60kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.0S 154.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued around 192000UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 191200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 19/1408 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH 163.2 EAST AT 191200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO EAST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. LLCC NOW UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING CDO. OVERALL ORGANISATION STEADILY IMPROVING. DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRAL AREA STEADILY INCREASED AND COOLED PAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH BUT STILL RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LOG10 SPIRAL WRAP OF .6, YIELDING DT= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 191200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1408 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [995hPa] was located near 15.9 South 163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving west-southwest 13 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 35 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere. LLCC now underneath the developing CDO. Overall organisation steadily improving. Deep convection about central area steadily increased and cooled past 12 hours. Outflow good to north but still restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6, yielding DT=3.0. MET and PT agree at 3.0. Thus, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. Wati lies just to the north of the 250 hPa ridge axis. Vertical wind shear around 15 to 25 knots but anticipated to decrease gradually. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is beeing steered west-southwest by a deep mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady west-southwest track with slight, further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 200000 UTC near 16.7S 160.7E mov WSW 13kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 201200 UTC near 17.9S 158.0E mov WSW 13kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 210000 UTC near 18.8S 156.0E mov WSW 12kt with 60kt close to centre. 48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.0S 154.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued around 192000UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 191200 *** PART 02 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE AT 3.0. THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. WATI LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS BUT ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY. SST AROUND 29 TO 30C. CYCLONE IS BEEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A DEEP MEAN NORTHEAST FLOW DRIVEN BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH SLIGHT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 16.7S 160.7E MOV WSW 13KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 17.9S 158.0E MOV WSW 13KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC NEAR 18.8S 156.0E MOV WSW 12KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC NEAR 19.0S 154.1E MOV WSW 12KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WATI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 192000UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352Z MAR 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARING. RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 148.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 148.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.7S 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.2S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 17P HAS REACHED NEAR MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN CAIRNS AND TOWNSVILLE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING ** WTPS32 PGTW 191500) FOR TWELVE *** ** WTPS32 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190752Z MAR 06// REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z MAR 06// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WATI) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 163.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 163.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.9S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.8S 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.5S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 18.9S 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 162.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (WATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO ITS ORIENTATION WITH THE STEERING RIDGE, OUTFLOW IS ONLY FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. THIS LACK OF OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 18P. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190752Z MAR 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190800). MAXIMUM SIGNIF- ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW 191500) FOR LVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//