** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTAU01 ABRF 190028 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0028 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 950 hectopascals centred at 190000 UTC near 17.7S 151.1 and moving westwards at 15 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 80nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 95 to 100 knots near the centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 191200 UTC near 18.0S 148.2E with maximum winds 90 knots At 200000 UTC near 18.0S 145.5E with maximum winds near 100 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 190028 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0028 UTC 19 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 950 hectopascals centred at 190000 UTC near 17.7S 151.1 and moving westwards at 15 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 80nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 95 to 100 knots near the centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell. Forecast positions At 191200 UTC near 18.0S 148.2E with maximum winds 90 knots At 200000 UTC near 18.0S 145.5E with maximum winds near 100 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 190028 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0028 UTC 19 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 190000 UTC NEAR 17.7S 151.1 AND MOVING WESTWARDS AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 250NM OF THE LOW CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INCREASING TO 250 NM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS ABOVE 48 KNOTS WITHIN 80NM OF THE CENTRE AND MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 90 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS INCREASING TO 95 TO 100 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL ON A HEAVY SWELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 UTC NEAR 18.0S 148.2E WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS AT 200000 UTC NEAR 18.0S 145.5E WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS11 NFFN 190000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/0154 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 16F centre [998hPa] was located near 15.3 South 166.0 East at 190000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT/VIS imagery with animation, peripheral surface reports and recent SSMI passes. Depression moving westsouthwest at about 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. LLCC placed on southern edge of deep convection. System continues to organise as it clears the Vanuatu island chain. Outflow good in the sector from northwest to south and becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .55 yields DT=2.5, MET=2.5 and PT=2.5. FT based on PT yields T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. 16F lies just to the north of the 250hPa subtropical ridge and is moving under the ridge in an area of increasing diffluence. Environmental shear over 16F is about 10 knots. The depression is expected to steer southwestwards in response to a building midlevel ridge to the east. ECMWF picks up the circulation from tonight and develops it further while moving it westwards. Other global models, on the other hand, have not picked up the recent development of 16F and just maintain an easterly wave moving westwards towards the Australia's east coast in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Larry. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on 16F will be issued at 190800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 190000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/0154 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 16F centre [998hPa] was located near 15.3 South 166.0 East at 190000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT/VIS imagery with animation, peripheral surface reports and recent SSMI passes. Depression moving westsouthwest at about 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. LLCC placed on southern edge of deep convection. System continues to organise as it clears the Vanuatu island chain. Outflow good in the sector from northwest to south and becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .55 yields DT=2.5, MET=2.5 and PT=2.5. FT based on PT yields T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. 16F lies just to the north of the 250hPa subtropical ridge and is moving under the ridge in an area of increasing diffluence. Environmental shear over 16F is about 10 knots. The depression is expected to steer southwestwards in response to a building midlevel ridge to the east. ECMWF picks up the circulation from tonight and develops it further while moving it westwards. Other global models, on the other hand, have not picked up the recent development of 16F and just maintain an easterly wave moving westwards towards the Australia's east coast in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Larry. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on 16F will be issued at 190800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 190000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI MAR 19/0154 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 166.0 EAST AT 190000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS AND RECENT SSMI PASSES. DEPRESSION MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LLCC PLACED ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANISE AS IT CLEARS THE VANUATU ISLAND CHAIN. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AND BECOMING GOOD ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LOG10 SPIRAL WRAP OF .55 YIELDS DT=2.5, MET=2.5 AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON PT YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 16F LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE IN AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER 16F IS ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER SOUTHWESTWARDS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ECMWF PICKS UP THE CIRCULATION FROM TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS IT FURTHER WHILE MOVING IT WESTWARDS. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE NOT PICKED UP THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF 16F AND JUST MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIA'S EAST COAST IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 16F WILL BE ISSUED AT 190800 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 151.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 151.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.1S 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.4S 145.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.7S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 150.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO LINKAGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL BE HAMPERED DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH LAND AND THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRAVERSES THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN INTERIOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 190445 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 12 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.)