** WTIN20 DEMS 180605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------- DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE PASSES THROUGH 10 DEG NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION AT 200 HPA (.) ** WTAU01 ABRF 180641 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0641 UTC 18 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at 180600UTC near 17.0S 155.5E and moving westwards at 12 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 300nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 200 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots with maximum winds reaching 60 knots within 40 nm of the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 80 knots within 40 nm of the centre in the next 24 hours. Seas rising from very rough to phenomenal over the next 24 hours on a heavy swell. Forecast positions Near 18.0S 152.4E at 181800UTC with maximum winds 80 knots; and Near 18.0S 149.4E at 190600UTC with maximum winds 80 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 180641 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0641 UTC 18 March 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 975 hectopascals centred at 180600UTC near 17.0S 155.5E and moving westwards at 12 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly direction. AREA AFFECTED Within 300nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 200 nm in the northern semi-circle. FORECAST Clockwise winds 34/45 knots with maximum winds reaching 60 knots within 40 nm of the centre. Maximum winds increasing to 80 knots within 40 nm of the centre in the next 24 hours. Seas rising from very rough to phenomenal over the next 24 hours on a heavy swell. Forecast positions Near 18.0S 152.4E at 181800UTC with maximum winds 80 knots; and Near 18.0S 149.4E at 190600UTC with maximum winds 80 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 180641 *** IDQ20008 PAN PAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0641 UTC 18 MARCH 2006 HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 180600UTC NEAR 17.0S 155.5E AND MOVING WESTWARDS AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 300NM OF THE LOW CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 34/45 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 60 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS RISING FROM VERY ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON A HEAVY SWELL. FORECAST POSITIONS NEAR 18.0S 152.4E AT 181800UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS; AND NEAR 18.0S 149.4E AT 190600UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LARRY) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 155.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 155.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.6S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.2S 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.7S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 19.3S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.3S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 155.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PER- IPHERY OF A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//