** WTAU01 ABRF 171838 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1838 UTC 17 March 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 995 hectopascals centred at 171800UTC near 16.6S 157.6E and moving WSW at 15 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected deepen. AREA AFFECTED Within 100nm of the low centre expanding to 120nm. FORECAST Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 45 knots with maximum winds reaching 50 knots in 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough and increasing. Forecast positions Near 17.0S 155.7E at 180600UTC and Near 17.3S 153.5E at 181800UTC. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 171838 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1838 UTC 17 March 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 995 hectopascals centred at 171800UTC near 16.6S 157.6E and moving WSW at 15 knots. Position good. The cyclone is expected deepen. AREA AFFECTED Within 100nm of the low centre expanding to 120nm. FORECAST Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 45 knots with maximum winds reaching 50 knots in 12 to 24 hours. Seas very rough and increasing. Forecast positions Near 17.0S 155.7E at 180600UTC and Near 17.3S 153.5E at 181800UTC. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 171838 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE 1 CORRECTED HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1838 UTC 17 MARCH 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS CENTRED AT 171800UTC NEAR 16.6S 157.6E AND MOVING WSW AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DEEPEN. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 100NM OF THE LOW CENTRE EXPANDING TO 120NM. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS INCREASING TO 34 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 50 KNOTS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. SEAS VERY ROUGH AND INCREASING. FORECAST POSITIONS NEAR 17.0S 155.7E AT 180600UTC AND NEAR 17.3S 153.5E AT 181800UTC. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTPS21 PGTW 172130 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/172121ZMAR2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 158.2E TO 18.8S 152.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 157.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A INCREASED LOW TO MIDLEVEL ORGANIZATION AND FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RECENT 171828Z TRMM PASS REVEALS INCREASED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG BANDING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL. SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, WHICH HAS STARTED TO FILL OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIM- ATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182130Z.//