** WTIN20 DEMS 100600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTIO24 FMEE 100606 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 10/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-DIWA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 36.7S / 69.3E (THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 600 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UP TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY BETWEEN 200 NM AND 260 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/10 AT 18 UTC: 37.8S / 74.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/11 AT 06 UTC: 39.2S / 79.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-DIWA" HAS NOW AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DU TO THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. "EX-DIWA" KEEPS ON TRACKING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE POLAR WESTERLY CIRCULATION, TOWARDS SAINT-PAUL/AMSTERDAM ISLANDS IT SHOULD APPROACH DURING THE NIGHT OF THE 10 TO 11. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 100606 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 10/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 033/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 10/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE 11 (EX-DIWA) 987 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 36.7S / 69.3E (TRENTE-SIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 600 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 220 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE JUSQU'A 350 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET LOCALEMENT ENTRE 200 MN ET 260 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 10/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 37.8S / 74.2E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 11/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 39.2S / 79.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "EX-DIWA" PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE STRUCTURE EXTRA-TROPICALE, C'EST A DIRE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS LOIN DU CENTRE. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISES DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST EN RAISON DE LA VITESSE PROPRE DU SYSTEME ET DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. "EX-DIWA" CONTINUE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION POLAIRE EN SE DIRIGEANT VERS LES ILES DE SAINT-PAUL/AMSTERDAM QU'IL DEVRAIT FROLER DANS LA NUIT DU 10 AU 11. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 100608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/11/20052006 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/10 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 36.7S / 69.3E (THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 450 SO: 480 NO: 620 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/10 18 UTC: 37.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/11 06 UTC: 39.2S/79.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/11 18 UTC: 40.7S/86.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/12 06 UTC: 42.4S/94.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-DIWA" HAS NOW AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DU TO THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. "EX-DIWA" KEEPS ON TRACKING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE POLAR WESTERLY CIRCULATION, TOWARDS SAINT-PAUL/AMSTERDAM ISLANDS IT SHOULD APPROACH DURING THE NIGHT OF THE 10 TO 11. WINDS ARE CALIBRATED THANKS TO LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 100608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/11/20052006 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/10 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 36.7S / 69.3E (THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 450 SO: 480 NO: 620 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/10 18 UTC: 37.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/11 06 UTC: 39.2S/79.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/11 18 UTC: 40.7S/86.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/12 06 UTC: 42.4S/94.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-DIWA" HAS NOW AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STRUCTURE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DU TO THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. "EX-DIWA" KEEPS ON TRACKING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS INTO THE POLAR WESTERLY CIRCULATION, TOWARDS SAINT-PAUL/AMSTERDAM ISLANDS IT SHOULD APPROACH DURING THE NIGHT OF THE 10 TO 11. WINDS ARE CALIBRATED THANKS TO LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT. .