** WTNT80 EGRR 080603 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.03.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 25.4S 37.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.03.2006 25.4S 37.9W WEAK 00UTC 10.03.2006 26.2S 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.03.2006 28.8S 34.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.03.2006 30.5S 32.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.03.2006 35.4S 27.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.03.2006 40.5S 20.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.03.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080603 ** WTIO22 FMEE 080611 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/55KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 18 UTC: 29.5S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/09 AT 06 UTC: 32.0S / 60.9E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CONVECTION HAS LIGHLTLY ORGANIZED ITSELF WITH A CURVER BAND PATTERN DURING LAST HOURS, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED LIGHLY NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 080611 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 08/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 025/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 08/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (DIWA) 980 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (VINGT-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50/55KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 29.5S / 58.0E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 09/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 32.0S / 60.9E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: MALGRES UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST, LA CONVECTION PRESENTE UN ASPECT MIEUX ORGANISE EN BANDE INCURVEE DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES, MARQUANT UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. LE CENTRE DE BASSES-COUCHE EST DECALE LEGEREMENT AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION D'ALTITUDE. SUITE AU DECALAGE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES VERS L'EST, LE SYSTEME S'ACCELERE VERS LE SUD-EST. IL DEVRAIT S'EVACUER DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRATROPICAL ET CHANGER DE STRUCTURE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 080611 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/55KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 18 UTC: 29.5S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/09 AT 06 UTC: 32.0S / 60.9E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CONVECTION HAS LIGHLTLY ORGANIZED ITSELF WITH A CURVER BAND PATTERN DURING LAST HOURS, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED LIGHLY NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 080627 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 32.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 34.9S/64.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 37.8S/69.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 18 UTC: 40.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/11 06 UTC: 42.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DURING LAST NIGHT, CONVECTION HAS LIGHLTLY ORGANIZED ITSELF WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST HOURS, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED LIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, MORE AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED, OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26AoC (SOUTH OF 30AoS). . ** WTIO30 FMEE 080627 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 56.5E (TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 32.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 34.9S/64.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 37.8S/69.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 18 UTC: 40.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/11 06 UTC: 42.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DURING LAST NIGHT, CONVECTION HAS LIGHLTLY ORGANIZED ITSELF WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING LAST HOURS, SHOWING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED LIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION. DUE TO THE SHIFT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD EVACUATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, MORE AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED, OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26AOC (SOUTH OF 30AOS).= ** WTIN20 DEMS 080629 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTXS31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 27.4S 56.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 56.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 30.1S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 33.0S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 56.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS TC 16S ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF 30 DEGREES SOUTH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STORM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN RECENT INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 24-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 082100Z.//