** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 071208 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 00 UTC: 25.4S / 55.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 12 UTC: 27.1S / 55.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND TO SPEED UP BEYOND 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 071208 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 00 UTC: 25.4S / 55.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 12 UTC: 27.1S / 55.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND TO SPEED UP BEYOND 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 071208 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 022/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 07/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 160 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. TEMPETE 50KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 25.4S / 55.0E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 27.1S / 55.9E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE "DIWA" SE DECALE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-EST PUIS ACCELE RER AU DELA DE 36H. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 071209 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.1S/55.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 30.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 33.9S/60.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 00 UTC: 37.2S/63.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 12 UTC: 40.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY, AN INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTIME BUT THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24 TO 36H, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP, FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE TROUGH AND TO START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071209 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.1S/55.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 30.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 33.9S/60.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 00 UTC: 37.2S/63.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 12 UTC: 40.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY, AN INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTIME BUT THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24 TO 36H, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP, FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE TROUGH AND TO START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. . ** WTNT80 EGRR 071705 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.03.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071705