** WTIO21 FMEE 070615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 021/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. TEMPETE 50KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 25.1S / 54.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 26.0S / 54.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE "DIWA" SE DECALE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS ACCELERER AU DELA DE 3 6H. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 070615 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 18 UTC: 25.1S / 54.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 06 UTC: 26.0S / 54.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND TO ACCELERATE BEYOND 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 070615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 021/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. TEMPETE 50KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 25.1S / 54.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 26.0S / 54.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE "DIWA" SE DECALE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS ACCELERER AU DELA DE 3 6H. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 070615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 021/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 07/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. TEMPETE 50KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 25.1S / 54.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 08/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 26.0S / 54.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE "DIWA" SE DECALE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONTINUER DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS ACCELERER AU DELA DE 3 6H. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 070615 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STROM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 18 UTC: 25.1S / 54.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/08 AT 06 UTC: 26.0S / 54.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND TO ACCELERATE BEYOND 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 070616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 26.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 27.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 30.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 33.0S/59.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 36.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE SLIGHT WESTERL Y VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; "DIWA" SHOULD SPEED UP BEYOND TAU 36H TOWARDS THE TROUGH, AND START ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 070616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 53.4E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 26.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 27.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 30.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 33.0S/59.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 36.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE SLIGHT WESTERL Y VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; "DIWA" SHOULD SPEED UP BEYOND TAU 36H TOWARDS THE TROUGH, AND START ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 070628 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTXS31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 53.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 53.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 25.3S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 27.0S 55.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 29.7S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 32.3S 59.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 53.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD STORM OUTFLOW WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AFTER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AN INITIAL PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE STORM FIRST ENCOUNTERS THIS BAND OF WESTERLIES. WEAKENING IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//