** WTIO21 FMEE 061201 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 06/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 018/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 06/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 23.1S / 52.4E (VINGT-TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 24.1S / 52.5E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 07/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 25.2S / 52.9E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: DIWA POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE GENERALEMENT SUD, ET DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER LEGEREMENT. LES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDENT LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 061201 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 23.1S / 52.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERNSEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 00 UTC: 24.1S / 52.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 12 UTC: 25.2S / 52.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DIWA KEEPS ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY . STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 061201 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 23.1S / 52.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERNSEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 00 UTC: 24.1S / 52.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/07 AT 12 UTC: 25.2S / 52.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DIWA KEEPS ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND SHOULD SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY .. STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 061207 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 1200 UTC : 23.1S / 52.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.1S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.2S/52.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.7S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 29.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 31.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. BEYOND 25S, DIWA SHOULD UNDERGO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND THUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. DIWA KEEPS ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, SLOWING DOWN BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES IN THE SOUTH-WEST. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, DIWA SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND START TO EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS THANKS TO A TROUGH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 061207 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 1200 UTC : 23.1S / 52.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.1S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.2S/52.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.7S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 29.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 31.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. BEYOND 25S, DIWA SHOULD UNDERGO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND THUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. DIWA KEEPS ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, SLOWING DOWN BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES IN THE SOUTH-WEST. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, DIWA SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND START TO EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS THANKS TO A TROUGH. . ** WTPN31 PGTW 061500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 4.5N 135.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 135.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 4.6N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 4.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 6.0N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 7.3N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 4.5N 135.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 061200 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 1200 06 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 04.9M 135.3E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 100 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 071200 05.7N 132.2E AT 081200 06.EN 129.0E AND AT 091200 07.3N 126.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 061538 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 11 200 AM GUAM LST TUE MAR 7 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MOVING WESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR 250 MILES SOUTH OF KAYANGEL 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 405 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF SONSOROL THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...4.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH20 RPMM 061200 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 1200 06 MARCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ZERO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 071200 ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO EAST AT 081200 ZERO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 091200 ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 061650 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.03.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 22.8S 38.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.03.2006 22.8S 38.5W WEAK 12UTC 08.03.2006 23.8S 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.03.2006 23.7S 39.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.03.2006 23.9S 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.03.2006 24.7S 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.03.2006 26.0S 37.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.03.2006 27.5S 36.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.03.2006 29.5S 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.03.2006 35.0S 24.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.03.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061650