** WTIO30 FMEE 051804 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1800 UTC : 21.7S / 53.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 700 SO: 350 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 22.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 24.1S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 25.6S/54.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 27.0S/55.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 28.0S/55.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.2S/56.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 051804 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.7S / 53.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SE MI-CIRCLE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 06 UTC: 22.8S / 53.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 18 UTC: 24.1S / 54.0E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND THEN VEERING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 051804 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.7S / 53.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SE MI-CIRCLE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 06 UTC: 22.8S / 53.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 18 UTC: 24.1S / 54.0E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND THEN VEERING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 051804 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1800 UTC : 21.7S / 53.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 700 SO: 350 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 22.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 24.1S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 25.6S/54.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 27.0S/55.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 28.0S/55.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.2S/56.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 051804 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 015/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.7S / 53.8E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE, ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST JUSQU'A 40 0 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 22.8S / 53.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 24.1S / 54.0E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME RESTE D'INTENSITE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDANT ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE DANS LE SUD-EST. "DIWA" DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALLEMENT VERS LE SUD EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT AU DELA DE 24HEURES PUIS VIRER VERS LE SUD- -EST A MOYENNE ECHEANCE. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 06.3N 137.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 06.3N 135.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTAU05 APRF 051855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1854UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 12.0 south 118.0 east Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 March: Within 170 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.0 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 06 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 051855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1854UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 12.0 south 118.0 east Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 March: Within 170 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.0 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 06 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051919 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A 500 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W RELOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.1 DEGREES EAST. THE WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LATER THIS MORNING. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 260 MILES EAST OF KOROR 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 200 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 415 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W NORTH OF KAYANGEL THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS WEAKENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTAU05 APRF 051855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1854UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 12.0 south 118.0 east Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 March: Within 170 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.0 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 06 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 051855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1854UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal seven degrees South [11.7S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal zero degrees East [118.0E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 12.0 south 118.0 east Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 March: Within 170 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.0 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100UTC 06 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 53.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 53.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 23.4S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 24.4S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 25.6S 53.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 27.1S 55.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 53.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KT POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 6.7N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 6.8N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 7.1N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 7.5N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 8.9N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 138.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AFTER A 051028Z QUIKSCAT AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAD FORMED AT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A MONSOON TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTH- EAST IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 052100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 052100UTC 06.5N 137.8E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 062100UTC 06.5N 135.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 052159 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 8 800 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS 250 MILES EAST OF KOROR 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 200 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 410 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AT A SLOWLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W SOUTH OF KOROR LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.0 DEGREES EAST AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO/MARN ** WTPQ81 PGUM 052310 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-060500- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL. ... INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS 250 MILES EAST OF KOROR 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU 200 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 410 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WEST LATER TODAY. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... PORTIONS OF PALAU ARE NOW IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3. AS NOW FORECAST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF KOROR LATE TUESDAY MORNING. PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W HAS BEHAVED VERY ERRATICALLY SO FAR... PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AS FURTHER CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH TUESDAY MORNING... THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ... SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... EXPECT HAZARDOUS SURF AT 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN ABOVE HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...OTHER EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W PASSES SOUTH OF KOROR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH IN HILLY AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ON STEEP SLOPES IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT THE UPPER END OF CURRENT ESTIMATES. ...SONSOROL... IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED... BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SONSOROL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ...WIND INFORMATION... IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W INTENSIFIES AND MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...SONSOROL MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. ... SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...OTHER EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W PASSES NORTH OF SONSOROL ON TUESDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE