** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 051201 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 00 UTC: 22.0S / 54.2E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 12 UTC: 23.0S / 54.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND THEN VEERING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 051201 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 014/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.0S / 54.0E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE, ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 300 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 22.0S / 54.2E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 23.0S / 54.5E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME RESTE D'INTENSITE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDANT ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE DANS LE SUD-EST. "DIWA" DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALLEMENT VERS LE SUD EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT AU DELA DE 24HEURES PUIS VIRER VERS LE SUD- -EST A MOYENNE ECHEANCE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 051201 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 00 UTC: 22.0S / 54.2E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 12 UTC: 23.0S / 54.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND THEN VEERING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 051210 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051210 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 051217 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 051217 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 06.2N 137.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 06.2N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051250 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A 1100 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES EAST OF KOROR 150 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP 365 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W PASS NORTH OF KAYANGEL BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...7.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM GUAM LST MONDAY. $$ AHN ** WTAU05 APRF 051323 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1311UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal five degrees South [11.5S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal eight degrees East [118.8E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000 UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 11.7 south 118.6 east Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 06 March: Within 180 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.6 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 05 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 051323 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:12S119E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1311UTC 5 MARCH 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC tropical low, located within 90 nautical miles of Latitude eleven decimal five degrees South [11.5S] Longitude one hundred and eighteen decimal eight degrees East [118.8E] Recent movement west at 8 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, causing 30/45 knot winds and rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000 UTC 06 March: Within 130 nautical miles of 11.7 south 118.6 east Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1200 UTC 06 March: Within 180 nautical miles of 12.8 south 119.6 east Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 05 March. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 7.7N 137.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 137.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 8.4N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.1N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 9.5N 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 10.2N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 12.0N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 13.9N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.8N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 137.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 051518 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 7 130 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.0 DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 160 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W NORTH OF KAYANGEL THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...7.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 06.2N 137.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 06.2N 135.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 051702 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-052300- TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM GUAM LST MON MAR 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.0 DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR 160 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... PORTIONS OF PALAU ARE NOW IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO 20 TO 30 MPH. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF WILL REMAIN ABOVE HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES CLOSE TO KOROR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH IN HILLY AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ON STEEP SLOPES IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT THE UPPER END OF CURRENT ESTIMATES. ...SONSOROL... IF TROPICAL STORM 01W TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SONSOROL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BEFORE 4 AM ON TUESDAY IF THE TROPICAL STORM COMES CLOSER TO SONSOROL THAN EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 MPH. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES NORTH OF SONSOROL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM GUAM LST. $$ STANKO