** WTIO21 FMEE 050613 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 013/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE SUPPOSE ETRE LE PRINCIPAL, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE, ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 300 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 20.2S / 53.2E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 21.4S / 52.4E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: IL Y A UNE FORTE PROBABILITE QU'IL EXISTE UN MINIMUM SECONDAIRE AU SUD DU MINIMUM PRINCIPAL, POSITIONNE VERS 20.4S/54.3E SOUS LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. LE MINIMUM CITE DANS CE BULLETIN EST CEPENDANT SUPPOSE RESTER LE PRINCIPAL. LA QUESTION SE POSE DE SAVOIR SI CE MINIMUM SECONDAIRE NE VA PAS CONTINUER A SE CREUSER ET DEVENIR LE MINIMUM PRINCIPAL DE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE. AUQUEL CAS, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SERAIT DECALEE D'AUTANT. DANS TOUS LES CAS, "DIWA" DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALLEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT PUIS VIRER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A MOYENNE ECHEANCE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 050613 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 06 UTC: 21.4S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THERE IS AN HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CENTER EXISTS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LLCC, LOCATED NEAR 20.4S/54.3E UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THIS WARNING IS SUPPOSED TO STAY THE MAIN ONE. THE QUESTION IS NOW TO KNOW IF THIS SECONDARY LLCC KEEPS ON DEEPENING AND IF IT COULD BECOMMING THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THIS CASE, THE FORECASTED TRACK SHOULD BE TRANSLATED. IN ANY CASE, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 050613 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 06 UTC: 21.4S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THERE IS AN HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CENTER EXISTS SOUTH OF THE MAIN LLCC, LOCATED NEAR 20.4S/54.3E UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THIS WARNING IS SUPPOSED TO STAY THE MAIN ONE. THE QUESTION IS NOW TO KNOW IF THIS SECONDARY LLCC KEEPS ON DEEPENING AND IF IT COULD BECOMMING THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THIS CASE, THE FORECASTED TRACK SHOULD BE TRANSLATED. IN ANY CASE, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AND THEN VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.2S/53.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 23.7S/51.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 24.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 25.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AT REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FACT CANNOT BE TOTALLY EXPLAINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW (ONLY SLIGHTLY CLOSER WITH NO DEEPENING). THEREFORE THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE MAIN LLCC UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION (WITH CENTRE NEAR 20.4S/54.3E). THE QUESTION IS NOW TO ASSESS WHETHER THIS SECONDARY LLCC MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THIS CASE, THE FORECASTED TRACK SHOULD BE TRANSLATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS POTENTIAL SHIFT. THE RECENT ANIMATED IR-M5 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS NOW WEAKER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 53.7E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.2S/53.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.4S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 23.7S/51.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 24.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 25.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AT REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FACT CANNOT BE TOTALLY EXPLAINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW (ONLY SLIGHTLY CLOSER WITH NO DEEPENING). THEREFORE THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE MAIN LLCC UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION (WITH CENTRE NEAR 20.4S/54.3E). THE QUESTION IS NOW TO ASSESS WHETHER THIS SECONDARY LLCC MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AND MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN THIS CASE, THE FORECASTED TRACK SHOULD BE TRANSLATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS POTENTIAL SHIFT. THE RECENT ANIMATED IR-M5 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS NOW WEAKER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. . ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050644 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A 500 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W HEADING TOWARD PALAU... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF KOROR 185 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 365 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF FORWARDING SPEED. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND KAYANGEL BY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...7.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 06.1N 138.0E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 06.5N 136.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 06.1N 138.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 7.4N 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 8.4N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 9.2N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 9.8N 131.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 10.1N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 11.6N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.5N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 137.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 050600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 53.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 53.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.7S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 22.0S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 23.5S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 24.9S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 53.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 050900 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 53.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 53.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.7S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 22.0S 53.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 23.5S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 24.9S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 53.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TC 16S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS IT ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP TIME.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 06.2N 137.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 06.5N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050945 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 6 800 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF KOROR 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 MPH...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W PASS NORTH OF KAYANGEL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND OTHER PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY. $$ AHN ** WTPQ81 PGUM 051046 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-051700- TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF KOROR 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... PORTIONS OF PALAU ARE NOW IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITION 3. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO 25 TO 30 KT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES CLOSE TO KOROR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH IN HILLY AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ON STEEP SLOPES. ...SONSOROL... IF TROPICAL STORM 01W TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SONSOROL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTH WIND 10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BEFORE 4 AM ON TUESDAY IF THE TROPICAL STORM COMES CLOSER TO SONSOROL THAN EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES CLOSE TO SONSOROL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM GUAM LST MONDAY. $$ AHN