** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050009 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 53.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 23.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 24.2S/51.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT : THE NORTH AND THE EAST OF REUNION ISLAND REMAIN UNDER THE THIS STRONG ACTIVITY AS MAURITIUS NOW GAINS LESS SEVERE WEATHER. THE RECENT ANIMATED IR-M5 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NOR THWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS NOW WEAKER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 050009 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 53.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 53.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 00 UTC: 21.1S / 52.3E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 050009 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 012/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1S / 53.8E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE, ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 300 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 20.0S / 53.1E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 06/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 21.1S / 52.3E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "DIWA" RESTE D'INTENSITE MODEREE, AVEC DES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDANT ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. "DIWA" EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 050009 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 53.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 53.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/06 AT 00 UTC: 21.1S / 52.3E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 050009 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 53.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 23.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 24.2S/51.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT : THE NORTH AND THE EAST OF REUNION ISLAND REMAIN UNDER THE THIS STRONG ACTIVITY AS MAURITIUS NOW GAINS LESS SEVERE WEATHER. THE RECENT ANIMATED IR-M5 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NOR THWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS NOW WEAKER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 05.9N 138.3E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 06.2N 134.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 05.9N 138.3E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 6.7N 137.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.7N 137.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 7.4N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 7.8N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 8.2N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 8.7N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 10.1N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 11.6N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 13.2N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 137.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 06.1N 138.1E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 06.3N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050342 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 5 200 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD PALAU... AS OF 2 PM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS OF 2 PM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF KOROR 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 95 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE INCREASING ITS FOWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND KAYANGEL MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ81 PGUM 050438 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-051100- TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARDS PALAU... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF KOROR 210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 95 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 MPH. IF TROPICAL STORM 01W TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SONSOROL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... PORTIONS OF PALAU ARE NOW IN CONDITION 3. RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER 4 AM ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WEST WIND 25 TO 30 KT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE HAZARDOUS 10 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES CLOSE TO KOROR. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HIGH IN HILLY AREAS AND ALONG STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ON STEEP SLOPES. ...SONSOROL... IF THE TROPICAL STORM MOTION IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR ON SONSOROL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTH WIND 10 KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER 4 AM ON TUESDAY IF THE TROPICAL STORM COMES CLOSER TO SONSOROL THAN EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES CLOSE TO SONSOROL. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTIN20 DEMS 050600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA , MALDIVES AND ADJOINING COMMORIN AREA AND ALSO SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (.) WESTERLY PREVAILS OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.)