** WTIO21 FMEE 041820 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 011/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8S / 53.9E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 250 MN DU CENTRE, ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST JUSQU'A 300 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 19.5S / 52.5E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 20.9S / 51.7E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "DIWA" RESTE D'INTENSITE MODEREE, AVEC DES VENTS FORTS S'ETENDANT ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD-EST. "DIWA" EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GLOBALE DU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ET S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT D'ICI 36 A 48 HEURES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 041820 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 53.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 06 UTC: 19.5S / 52.5E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 20.9S / 51.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AND TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 041820 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 53.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, BUT LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 06 UTC: 19.5S / 52.5E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 18 UTC: 20.9S / 51.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AND TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 53.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 22.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 23.1S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 24.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE : THE LLCC CENTRE IS LARGELY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ; THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND SHOULD GAIN MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041821 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 53.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 22.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 23.1S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 24.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE : THE LLCC CENTRE IS LARGELY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ; THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND SHOULD GAIN MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 06.2N 135.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 137.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 137.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 7.5N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 8.1N 135.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 8.4N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 8.8N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 10.0N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.3N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.9N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 137.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DIWA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 54.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 54.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 19.4S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.8S 52.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 22.0S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 22.8S 52.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 53.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (DIWA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED WEST-OUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INITIAL SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERN TURN AS THE RIDGE TRANSITS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO POOR OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 042134 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 800 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARD PALAU... AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU 190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL AFTER MOVING NORTH OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 01W BETWEEN KOROR AND KAYANGEL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 042100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 042100UTC 06.3N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 052100UTC 06.3N 134.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 042309 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ161-171-050500- TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARDS PALAU... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES EAST OF KOROR 225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 105 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU 190 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SONSOROL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH. ...KOROR AND KAYANGEL... RESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NORTH LATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER 4 AM ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY TO WEST WIND 25 TO 30 KT EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH AROUND 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES WILL BE HAZARDOUS 10 TO 12 FEET TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM 01W PASSES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO