** WTIO22 FMEE 041209 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 18.5S / 54.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT NEAR THE CENTER, BUT REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 260 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND RACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 2500 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 53.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 51.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS. THE SYSYTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE MINIMUM IN THE NORTH AND ALSO THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041210 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1200 UTC : 18.5S / 54.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 600 SE: 600 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/51.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 20.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 21.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 22.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 22.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSYTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE MINIMUM IN THE NORTH AND ALSO THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STOPED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUIDING IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 041209 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 18.5S / 54.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT NEAR THE CENTER, BUT REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 260 NM OF THE CENTRE, AND RACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 2500 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 53.0E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/05 AT 12 UTC: 20.0S / 51.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS. THE SYSYTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE MINIMUM IN THE NORTH AND ALSO THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 24 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 041210 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1200 UTC : 18.5S / 54.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 600 SE: 600 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/51.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 20.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 21.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 22.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 22.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSYTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE MINIMUM IN THE NORTH AND ALSO THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STOPED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUIDING IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 041209 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 010/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 993 HPA POSITION: 18.5S / 54.6E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT DANS LA QUADRANT EST ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 260 MN DU CENTRE. ET LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 500 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST A SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 19.0S / 53.0E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 05/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 20.0S / 51.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE EST EXPOSE AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION, AVEC UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME RESTE DE FAIBLE INTENSITE, AVEC NEANMOINS DES VENTS FORTS DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST SOUS LA CONVECTION ET DANS LE GRADIENT AVEC LA DORSALE PRESENTE AU SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. LA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST REDRESSEE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RENCONTRE DES CONDITIONS PLUS FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION, PAR LA DIMINUTION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DU A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME AU NORD, ET SURTOUT L'EFFACEMENT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE DANS L'OUEST DU SYSTEME AU DELA DE 24 HEURES. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 05.3N 138.3E POOR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 05.5N 136.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 5.5N 138.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N 138.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 5.8N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 6.1N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 6.2N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 6.5N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 7.7N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 8.8N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 10.9N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 137.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTs OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 06.0N 137.8E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 06.2N 135.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 041553 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 200 AM GUAM LST SUN MAR 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 01W. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 01W WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL 190 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU 270 MILES SOUTH OF YAP 385 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL TROPICAL STORM 01W IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 01W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE