** WTIO22 FMEE 031809 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES, AND SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 031809 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 007/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 220 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. VENTS RELATIVEMENT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A 80 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME PEINE A S'ORGANISER POUR LE MOMENT. IL PRESENTE UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE MAIS COMPTE TENU DE SA STRUCTURE PARTICULIREREMENT ETENDUE, "DIWA" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031809 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES, AND SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 031810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/53.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.3S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO PROPERLY ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE; RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND BROAD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS AND CLOUD BANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY BROAD EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 11.5S/55.0E AT 1407Z ON WINDSAT IMAGERY WHERE THE CENTRE IS RATHER WELL DEFINED.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/53.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.3S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO PROPERLY ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE; RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND BROAD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS AND CLOUD BANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY BROAD EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 11.5S/55.0E AT 1407Z ON WINDSAT IMAGERY WHERE THE CENTRE IS RATHER WELL DEFINED. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031809 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES, AND SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 031809 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 007/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 220 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. VENTS RELATIVEMENT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A 80 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME PEINE A S'ORGANISER POUR LE MOMENT. IL PRESENTE UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE MAIS COMPTE TENU DE SA STRUCTURE PARTICULIREREMENT ETENDUE, "DIWA" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031809 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 17.8S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 18 UTC: 18.7S / 54.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES, AND SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 031810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/53.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.3S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO PROPERLY ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE; RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND BROAD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS AND CLOUD BANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY BROAD EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 11.5S/55.0E AT 1407Z ON WINDSAT IMAGERY WHERE THE CENTRE IS RATHER WELL DEFINED.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/53.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.3S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO PROPERLY ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE; RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND BROAD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS AND CLOUD BANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY BROAD EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 11.5S/55.0E AT 1407Z ON WINDSAT IMAGERY WHERE THE CENTRE IS RATHER WELL DEFINED. . ** WTPN21 PGTW 032030 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/032021ZMAR2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0N 138.5E TO 6.1N 136.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 031730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 138.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 5.1N 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS IN- CREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATION OF BOTH THE LLCC AND CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042030Z.// ** WTXS21 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/032051ZMAR2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 57.4E TO 19.4S 55.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 032051Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 57.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 16.4S 57.2E HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030206Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALSO LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN BOTH POLE- WARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042100Z.//