** WTIO30 FMEE 031219 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 78.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.3S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REGENERATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 031220 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 035/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-CARINA) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 78.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 18.3S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 12 UTC: 16.0S / 77.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS. FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 031222 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 006/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. VENT FAIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A 80 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE PROGRESSIVEMENT, POUR LE MOMENT AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE MAIS COMPTE TENU DE SA STRUCTURE PARTICULIREREMENT ETENDUE, "DIWA" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031222 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 031219 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 78.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.3S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REGENERATION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 031220 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 035/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10 (EX-CARINA) 1000 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2S / 78.8E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 18.3S / 79.0E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 16.0S / 77.0E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: "EX-CARINA" CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR, LES VENT LES PLUS FORTS SONT LOCALISES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT. LES RESIDUS DE CE SYSTEME SONT PREVUS SE DECALER VERS LE NORD-OUEST. DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS SUR CE SYSTEME, SAUF NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 031220 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 035/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-CARINA) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 78.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 18.3S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 12 UTC: 16.0S / 77.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS. FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031222 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 031222 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 006/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. VENT FAIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A 80 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE PROGRESSIVEMENT, POUR LE MOMENT AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE MAIS COMPTE TENU DE SA STRUCTURE PARTICULIREREMENT ETENDUE, "DIWA" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 031222 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE, BUT DUE TO THIS RATHER WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY, FOLLOWING A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 031222 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 006/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (DIWA) 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. VENT FAIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A 80 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.4S / 55.7E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE PROGRESSIVEMENT, POUR LE MOMENT AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE MAIS COMPTE TENU DE SA STRUCTURE PARTICULIREREMENT ETENDUE, "DIWA" EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 031222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS TH E SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS.=