** WTIO22 FMEE 030627 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 17.0S / 57.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 18.1S / 56.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 030627 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 005/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. VENT FAIBLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE EN PERIPHERIE JUSQU'A 120 MN DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT PASSAGEREMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE SOUS LES LIGNES CONVECTIVES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.0S / 57.0E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 18.1S / 56.1E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE PROGRESSIVEMENT, POUR LE MOMENT AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE DEPRESSION DE MOUSSON : LES VENTS SONT FAIBLES A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, ET LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES ASSEZ LOIN EN PERIPHERIE. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST FAVORABLE A UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 030627 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. WEAK WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE PERIPHERY WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS UNDER CONVECTIVE LINES IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 17.0S / 57.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 18.1S / 56.1E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS A BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE : WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE, AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR IN THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FAVOURABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 030629 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 18.0S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL REMNANT CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030630 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.0S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 15.1S/76.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 13.8S/75.8E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5 "CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. "CARINA" IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FAVOU RABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 030629 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 034/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 18.0S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL REMNANT CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 030629 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 034/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.0S / 78.9E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR, L'ACTIVITE PRINCIPALE SE CONCENTRANT DANS LE QUADRANT EST. LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE EST PREVUE SE DIRIGER VERS LE NORD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE QUI SE RECONSTRUIT A L'OUEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 030630 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.0S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 15.1S/76.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 13.8S/75.8E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5 "CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. "CARINA" IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FAVOU RABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 030645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 10 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 030646 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 20.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 21.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030646 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 20.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 21.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 030651 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 20.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 21.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030651 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 20.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 21.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. .