** WTIO20 FMEE 030013 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 17.6S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 16.9S / 76.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC HAS TURNED BACK DUE TO A LOW LEVELS BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 70E AXIS IN THE PROLONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 17.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.1S/75.5E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 15.2S/74.2E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5-, CI=3.0- CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC HAS TURNED BACK DUE TO A LOW LEVELS BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 70E AXIS IN THE PROLONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006 (SEE REFERRING WARNING) AND PUSH AWAY THE CARINA'S RESIDUAL VORTEX NORTHWESTWARDS. DURING ITS TRACK TOWARDS LOWER LATITUDES , CARINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO A PERISTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN RELATIONSHIP WITH STRONG WINDS IN UPPER LEVELS REINFORCED BY THE POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 030013 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 033/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 17.6S / 77.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 16.9S / 76.4E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR ET LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION RESTE DEPHASE A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A REBROUSSE CHEMIN CAR UNE DORSALE SE CONSTRUIT LE LONG DE 70E DANS LE PROLONGEMENT DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES EN RELATION AVEC LE CREUSEMENT D'UN AUTRE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU NORD DES MASCAREIGNES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 030013 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 17.6S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 16.9S / 76.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC HAS TURNED BACK DUE TO A LOW LEVELS BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 70E AXIS IN THE PROLONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ANOTHER DEEPENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 030015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 17.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.1S/75.5E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 15.2S/74.2E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5-, CI=3.0- CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC HAS TURNED BACK DUE TO A LOW LEVELS BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 70E AXIS IN THE PROLONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006 (SEE REFERRING WARNING) AND PUSH AWAY THE CARINA'S RESIDUAL VORTEX NORTHWESTWARDS. DURING ITS TRACK TOWARDS LOWER LATITUDES , CARINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO A PERISTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN RELATIONSHIP WITH STRONG WINDS IN UPPER LEVELS REINFORCED BY THE POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 030021 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 14.6S / 57.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 57.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 18S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.4S/51.6E. CONVECTION SLOWLY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE MAIN CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 030021 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 004/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 14.6S / 57.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 04/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 15.4S / 57.6E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: VASTE ZONE DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE 45E A 65A, ET DE 08S A 18S, AU SEIN DE LAQUELLE ON DISTINGUE UN DEUXIEME MINIMU AU NORD DE MADAGASCAR, VERS 11.4S/51.6E. LA CONVECTION S'ORGANISE LENTEMENT PRES DU CENTRE PRINCIPAL. L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 030021 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 14.6S / 57.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/04 AT 00 UTC: 15.4S / 57.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 18S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.4S/51.6E. CONVECTION SLOWLY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE MAIN CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 030022 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 15.4S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 17.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 19.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.4S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.4S/51.6E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO KEEPING ON BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030022 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 15.4S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 17.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 19.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.4S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.4S/51.6E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO KEEPING ON BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 030120 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 3 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. FINAL GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1002 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.1 E MOVING WEST AT 4 KNOTS. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD FORM INTO A CYCLONE LATER, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. NO FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 030120 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 3 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. FINAL GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1002 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.1 E MOVING WEST AT 4 KNOTS. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD FORM INTO A CYCLONE LATER, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. NO FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE