** WTIO20 FMEE 021810 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 19.0S / 74.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 021810 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 19.0S / 74.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 021810 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 032/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 988 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 19.0S / 74.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES DEFAVORABLE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES IL EST QUASI-STATIONNAIRE MAIS IL DEVRAIT PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUISENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 021810 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 19.0S / 74.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 021810 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 032/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 19.0S / 74.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 021812 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 14.2S / 57.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 15.0S / 57.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 15S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/51.5E. CONVECTION BARELY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 021812 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 14.2S / 57.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 18 UTC: 15.0S / 57.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 15S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/51.5E. CONVECTION BARELY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 021812 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 003/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (TREIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.2S / 57.8E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 15.0S / 57.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: VASTE ZONE DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE 45E A 65A, ET DE 08S A 15S, AU SEIN DE LAQUELLE ON DISTINGUE UN DEUXIEME MINIMU AU NORD DE MADAGASCAR, VERS 11.5S/51.5E. LA CONVECTION PEINE A S'ORGANISER PRES DU CENTRE PRINCIPAL. L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.0S/70.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7S/69.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=3.0+ LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LAST SSMI MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 1320UTC AND AT 1540UTC CONFIRM THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS CLEARLY FAR IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE O F THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 021825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.0S/70.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7S/69.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=3.0+ LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LAST SSMI MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 1320UTC AND AT 1540UTC CONFIRM THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS CLEARLY FAR IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE O F THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.0S/70.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7S/69.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=3.0+ LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LAST SSMI MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 1320UTC AND AT 1540UTC CONFIRM THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS CLEARLY FAR IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE O F THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 021833 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 14.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 15.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 17.2S/56.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 18.7S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 021833 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 14.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 15.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 17.2S/56.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 18.7S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021833 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 14.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 15.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 17.2S/56.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 18.7S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021833 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 14.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 15.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 17.2S/56.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 18.7S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 021955 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:11S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 998 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.6 S 126.6 E MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/45 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 125.7 E. 997 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 124.3 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 021955 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:11S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 998 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.6 S 126.6 E MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/45 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 125.7 E. 997 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 124.3 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO30 FMEE 021833 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 57.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 14.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 15.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 17.2S/56.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 18.7S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 77.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 77.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.2S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 20.7S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING POLEWARD OF TC 14S HAS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISPLACED THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER. A 021540Z SSMI PASS DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEARLY 135 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE CONVECTION, TC 14S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER RATHER THAN COMPLETE AN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET.//