** WTIO22 FMEE 021215 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 1002 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 57.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN AN AREA FROM 08S TO 15S AND BETWEEN 50E AND 65E. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 13.5S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 14.7S / 58.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 15S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/50.5E. CONVECTION BARELY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 021216 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: 19.5S / 77.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 10 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 19.0S / 74.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TURN AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 021215 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 002/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11 1002 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 57.3E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UNE ZONE COMPRISE ENTRE 8 ET 15S, DE 50E A 65E. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 13.5S / 58.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 14.7S / 58.4E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: VASTE ZONE DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE 45E A 65A, ET DE 08S A 15S, AU SEIN DE LAQUELLE ON DISTINGUE UN DEUXIEME MINIMU AU NORD DE MADAGASCAR, VERS 11.5S/50.5E. LA CONVECTION PEINE A S'ORGANISER PRES DU CENTRE PRINCIPAL. L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 021215 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 1002 HPA POSITION: 13.2S / 57.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN AN AREA FROM 08S TO 15S AND BETWEEN 50E AND 65E. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 13.5S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 14.7S / 58.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 65E, AND FROM 08S TO 15S IN WHICH A SECOND LOW CAN BE DETECTED, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/50.5E. CONVECTION BARELY ORGANIZES CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021218 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 19.5S / 77.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 010 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 010 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.0S/74.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.6S/72.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.2S/71.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.0S/70.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 17.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=4.0- LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CLEARLY APPEARS WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOULD THEN TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES SURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 021218 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 19.5S / 77.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 010 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 010 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.0S/74.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.6S/72.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.2S/71.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.0S/70.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 17.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=4.0- LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CLEARLY APPEARS WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOULD THEN TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES SURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 021216 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 031/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: 19.5S / 77.0E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 45 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE PRESDU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 10 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 19.0S / 74.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES DEFAVORABLE. SUR LES DENIERES IMAGES LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR BIFURQUE ET ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST. iL DEVRAIT REDRESSER ENSUITE OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUISENT AU SUD. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 021247 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1330 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1000 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.8 S 127.3 E MOVING WEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0000 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 126.8 E. 1000 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1200 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.1 S 126.3 E. 995 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO30 FMEE 021247 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 13.2S / 57.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 13.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.7S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 17.2S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.5S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL.= ** WTAU03 ADRM 021247 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S127E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1330 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1000 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.8 S 127.3 E MOVING WEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0000 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 126.8 E. 1000 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1200 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 95 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.1 S 126.3 E. 995 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO20 FMEE 021216 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 031/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: 19.5S / 77.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 10 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 19.3S / 75.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 12 UTC: 19.0S / 74.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TURN AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 021247 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 13.2S / 57.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 13.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.7S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 17.2S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.5S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN A LTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL. .