** WTIO20 FMEE 020611 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 20.8S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS RELOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACTIVITY HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED OVER LAST NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEM NOW KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT A WEAK STAGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 020611 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 030/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 965 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/70 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 30 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 20.2S / 79.3E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.8S / 78.9E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CENTRE RECALE VERS LE SUD-EST. LE SYSTEME A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES. APRES UN REGAIN D'ACTIVITE DANS LA NUIT, LE SYSTEME POURSUIT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES DEFAVORABLE. AFFAIBLI, IL DEVRAIT ETRE DIRIGE PAR LA CELLULE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUIT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, ET ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE GENERALEMENT VERS L'OUEST, AU-DELA DE 12 A 18 HEURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 020611 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 965 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: 20.2S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: 20.8S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS RELOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACTIVITY HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED OVER LAST NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEM NOW KEEPS ON WEAKENING IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT A WEAK STAGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 020633 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 12 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTIO22 FMEE 020636 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 1/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 58.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN AN AREA FROM 08S TO 15S AND BETWEEN 45E AND 55E. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: . 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: . OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 55E, AND FROM 08S TO 15S. WITHIN THIS AREA, TWO LOWS CAN BE DETECTED, ONE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/50.5E, THE OTHER AND MAIN ONE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 020636 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 1/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 11 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0S / 58.0E (TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: INDETERMINE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UNE ZONE COMPRISE ENTRE 8 ET 15S, DE 45E A 55E. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 KT ET MER AGITEE. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 18 UTC: . ** WTIO22 FMEE 020636 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 1/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 58.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN AN AREA FROM 08S TO 15S AND BETWEEN 45E AND 55E. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: .. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 06 UTC: .. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURES BETWEEN 45E AND 55E, AND FROM 08s TO 15s. WITHIN THIS AREA, TWO LOWS CAN BE DETECTED, ONE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11.5S/50.5E, THE OTHER AND MAIN ONE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO DEVELOPMENT. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020650 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 20.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 20.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 20.2S/74.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.8S/72.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE, IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTAU03 ADRM 020721 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S128E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 128.1 E MOVING WESTNORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1800 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.4 S 127.8 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 127.2 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 020721 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S128E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 128.1 E MOVING WESTNORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1800 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.4 S 127.8 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.7 S 127.2 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO30 FMEE 020650 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 20.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 20.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 20.2S/74.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.8S/72.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE, IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.9S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.9S 83.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 78.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 14S HAS BEGUN THE EARLY STAGES OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 022100Z.//