** WTIO20 FMEE 020025 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC: 18.7S / 75.6E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE , IS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING UNDERGOING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 020025 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC: 18.7S / 75.6E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/03 AT 00 UTC: 19.0S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE , IS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING UNDERGOING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 020025 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 029/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEIZE DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/70 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.7S / 75.6E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 03/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 19.0S / 75.2E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME , DIFFICILE A POSITION SE TROUVE SOUS LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION, ET CONTINUE VERS LE SUD SUD-OUEST. IL EST PREVU CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET PREDOMINANT DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020032 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.3S/74.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.2S/73.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 19.0S/72.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=4.5+ LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, IS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE ALWAYS UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 020032 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.3S/74.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.2S/73.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 19.0S/72.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=4.5+ LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, IS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE ALWAYS UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 020114 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC, TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.1 S 128.9 E MOVING SLOWLY WEST. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO 25/35 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1200 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.9 S 128.6 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.9 S 127.8 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 020114 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 2 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC, TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.1 S 128.9 E MOVING SLOWLY WEST. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO 25/35 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1200 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.9 S 128.6 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 03 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.9 S 127.8 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE