** WTAU03 ADRM 011931 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.2 S 129.1 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO 25/35 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.4 S 128.6 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 127.9 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 011931 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.2 S 129.1 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO 25/35 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.4 S 128.6 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.5 S 127.9 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTXS31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 76.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 76.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.6S 75.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.7S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 20.0S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 76.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY STEERED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW, INDUCING A SLOW TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DISRUPTION OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR VALUES AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//