** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 011224 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC: 18.2S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC: 18.6S / 73.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 011224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=5.5 TRMM MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 0812UTC SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT 17.3S/77.1E. LLCC HAS BEEN CONSEQUENTLY RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEED ING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. - SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTWARD A DRYER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REVEALED BY INDOEX WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HEURES, NWP MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECASTED TRACK.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 011224 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 027/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 01/03/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEIZE DEGRES SIX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 230 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 18.2S / 75.2E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.6S / 73.9E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DU SYSTEME A ETE RELOCALISE PLUS AU NORD ET N'A DONC PROBABLEMENT PAS VIRE VERS LE SUD COMME ANNONCE DANS LE BULLETIN DE 0600UTC MAIS A CONTINUE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT UN PEU. LA CONVECTION A IMPLOSE LA NUIT DERNIERE ET "CARINA" S'AFFAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA CIRCULATION GENERALE DE BASSES COUCHES D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES ET POURRA ALORS REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 011224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=5.5 TRMM MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 0812UTC SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT 17.3S/77.1E. LLCC HAS BEEN CONSEQUENTLY RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEED ING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. - SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTWARD A DRYER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REVEALED BY INDOEX WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HEURES, NWP MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECASTED TRACK. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 011224 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 940 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC: 18.2S / 75.2E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 12 UTC: 18.6S / 73.9E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 011402 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1330 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 129.3 E SLOW MOVING. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0000 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 128.6 E. 995 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1200 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.3 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 011402 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1330 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1200 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 129.3 E SLOW MOVING. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0000 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 128.6 E. 995 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1200 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.3 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTIO30 FMEE 011754 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 19.3S/70.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=5.0-. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GON ON SOUTHWESTWARDS TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 011754 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.5S / 75.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: 18.9S / 74.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 011754 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 028/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.5S / 75.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 18 UTC: 18.9S / 74.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 011754 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 19.3S/70.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=5.0-. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GON ON SOUTHWESTWARDS TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 011754 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 028/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 01/03/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/75 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 18.5S / 75.1E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.9S / 74.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DU SYSTEME A CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT LEGEREMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU ETRE INFLUENCE PAR LA CIRCULATION GENERALE DE BASSES COUCHES D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES ET POURRA ALORS REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES. .