** WTIO20 FMEE 010615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 18.2S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.9S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ANS IS WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 010615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 026/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 01/03/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.2S / 77.5E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 18.9S / 77.1E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: "CARINA" RENCONTRE MAINTENANT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MOINS FAVORABLES ET S'AFFAIBLIT. IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT EN CONTINUANT SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD EN DIRECTION D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSHERE PUIS PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES .. IL POURRAIT ALORS VIRER VERS LE SUD-OUEST OU L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT PAR LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 010615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 18.2S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.9S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ANS IS WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 010615 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 026/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 18.2S / 77.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 06 UTC: 18.9S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ANS IS WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 010648 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/6.5 /W 2.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.2S/75.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=6.5- DURING LAST NIGHT, CARINA HAS DISORGANIZED (EYE HAS DISSAPEARED ON INDOEX IMAGERY) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURES IN THE NORTH-EAST CONSTRAIN THE SYSTEM TO VEER SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IT UNDERGOES NOW LESS ENREGETICS CONDITIONS (LOWER SST AROUND 26 DEGREES) , AN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN THE WEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST. LAST MICROWAVES IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 0239UTC AND SSAMI AT 0323UTC) CONFIRMS THIS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND EYE IS NOW ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 010648 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/6.5 /W 2.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.2S/75.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=6.5- DURING LAST NIGHT, CARINA HAS DISORGANIZED (EYE HAS DISSAPEARED ON INDOEX IMAGERY) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURES IN THE NORTH-EAST CONSTRAIN THE SYSTEM TO VEER SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IT UNDERGOES NOW LESS ENREGETICS CONDITIONS (LOWER SST AROUND 26 DEGREES) , AN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN THE WEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST. LAST MICROWAVES IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 0239UTC AND SSAMI AT 0323UTC) CONFIRMS THIS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND EYE IS NOW ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 010700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-03-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST OF BENGAL . THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 13 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTAU03 ADRM 010741 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.2 S 128.8 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1800 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 128.3 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.2 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 010741 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:10S129E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0730 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0600 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.2 S 128.8 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1800 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 128.3 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0600 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 10.3 S 127.2 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTXS31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 77.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 77.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.1S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.0S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.9S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.8S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 77.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK PAST TAU 36. AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AT TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//