** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 010025 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC: 17.1S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC: 17.5S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "CARINA" REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. BUT THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 010025 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 025/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 01/03/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC: 17.1S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/02 AT 00 UTC: 17.5S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "CARINA" REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. BUT THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 010025 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 025/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 01/03/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 920 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9S / 77.9E (SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 17.1S / 77.6E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 02/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.5S / 76.7E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: DURANT LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, "CARINA" EST RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN FAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 010041 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.5 MOINS /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.1S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/76.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.2S/75.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/74.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ON THE THE MOST RECENT METEOSAT-5 IMAGERY, THE EYE IS HARDLY REVEALED ; NEVERTHELESS, LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR-E 2006Z) STILL SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED EYEWALL. THE FUTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD CONFIRM THAT "CARINA" STARTED WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND THUS TO UNDERGO LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 010041 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.5 MOINS /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.1S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/76.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.2S/75.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/74.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ON THE THE MOST RECENT METEOSAT-5 IMAGERY, THE EYE IS HARDLY REVEALED ; NEVERTHELESS, LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR-E 2006Z) STILL SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED EYEWALL. THE FUTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD CONFIRM THAT "CARINA" STARTED WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND THUS TO UNDERGO LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 010146 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:9S130E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1002 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.0 S 129.5 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1200 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.2 S 129.2 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.3 S 128.6 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 010146 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:9S130E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 0130 UTC 1 MARCH 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 0000 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1002 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.0 S 129.5 E MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18-24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 1200 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.2 S 129.2 E. 998 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 0000 UTC 02 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 9.3 S 128.6 E. 992 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE