** WTIO20 FMEE 281815 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.2S / 77.2E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 17.6S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" INTENSITY HAS STABILIZED FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS ; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, STILL TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281815 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.2S / 77.2E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 18 UTC: 17.6S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" INTENSITY HAS STABILIZED FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS ; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, STILL TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 281815 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 024/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT A 60 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.2S / 77.2E, VENT MAX = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.6S / 76.3E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSITE DE "CARINA" SEMBLE STABILISEE DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES ; LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A S'AFFAIBLIR FRANCHEMENT D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES EN SUIVANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281824 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281824 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281828 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTAU03 ADRM 281916 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:8S130E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.1 S 130.4 E NEAR STATIONARY. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.4 S 130.0 E. 996 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.6 S 129.6 E. 990 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTAU03 ADRM 281916 *** IDD20130 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NORTHERN TERRITORY DARWIN REGIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE 40:2:1:24:8S130E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN ISSUED AT 1930 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 PLEASE BE AWARE WIND GUSTS CAN BE A FURTHER 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE, AND MAXIMUM WAVES MAY BE UP TO TWICE THE HEIGHT. GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA SITUATION AT 1800 UTC TROPICAL LOW 1001 HPA CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.1 S 130.4 E NEAR STATIONARY. THE LOW MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 20/25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30/40 KNOTS WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND RISING SWELL. 0600 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.4 S 130.0 E. 996 HPA. WINDS TO 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. 1800 UTC 01 MAR: CENTRE WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF 8.6 S 129.6 E. 990 HPA. WINDS TO 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE. REMARKS SHIPS IN THE GENERAL AREA PLEASE TRANSMIT 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS. DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE ** WTXS31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.4S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.1S 76.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.9S 75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.7S 75.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 77.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK PAST TAU 24. AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARN- INGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//