** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 910 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 00 UTC: 17.3S / 77.3E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC: 18.0S / 76.1E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, BUT SEEMS NOW NEAR ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT SHORT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1200 UTC : 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6S/74.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.2S/74.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.6S/73.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/72.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, WITH AN HOTTER, AND A COLDER CDO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM GOES ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTO A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE, THEN INTO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SOLW DOWN AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BIULD IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 910 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 00 UTC: 17.3S / 77.3E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC: 18.0S / 76.1E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, BUT SEEMS NOW NEAR ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT SHORT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281222 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1200 UTC : 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6S/74.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.2S/74.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.6S/73.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/72.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, WITH AN HOTTER, AND A COLDER CDO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM GOES ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTO A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE, THEN INTO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SOLW DOWN AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BIULD IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 281221 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 023/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 910 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 78.2E (SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/115 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 135 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 190 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 17.3S / 77.3E, VENT MAX = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 12 UTC: 18.0S / 76.1E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT, MAIS SEMBLE MAINTENANT PROCHE DE SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE A COURT TERME SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 281221 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 910 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 00 UTC: 17.3S / 77.3E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 12 UTC: 18.0S / 76.1E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, BUT SEEMS NOW NEAR ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT SHORT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. .