** WTIO21 FMEE 280608 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 022/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.3S / 78.7E (SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 135 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 190 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, VENT MAX = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, VENT MAX = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT. IL A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE DANS CETTE DIRECTION DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE A SON INTENSIFICATION SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 280608 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.3S / 78.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 280608 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.3S / 78.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC : 16.3S / 78.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 280622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.5S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC : 16.5S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC : 16.5S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 280622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 022/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.5S / 78.6E (SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 200 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/110 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 135 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 190 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, VENT MAX = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, VENT MAX = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT. IL A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE DANS CETTE DIRECTION DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE A SON INTENSIFICATION SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 280622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.5S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 16.9S / 77.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 06 UTC: 17.5S / 76.9E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC : 16.3S / 78.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE. . ** WTAU05 APRF 280643 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0642UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 CANCELLATION OF GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Emma was located over land, within 20 nautical miles of Latitude twenty two decimal zero degrees South [22.0S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E] Recent movement south southeast at 15 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 992 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Nil. FORECAST Winds have eased below 34 knots. No further warnings will be issued for this system. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 280643 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0642UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 CANCELLATION OF GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Emma was located over land, within 20 nautical miles of Latitude twenty two decimal zero degrees South [22.0S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal three degrees East [116.3E] Recent movement south southeast at 15 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 992 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Nil. FORECAST Winds have eased below 34 knots. No further warnings will be issued for this system. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIN20 DEMS 280713 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 14 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ** WTXS32 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 21.4S 116.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 116.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 25.0S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 116.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15S HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH VERTI- CAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE EFFECTS OF LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPAC- METOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENER- ATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 78.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.9S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.5S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.1S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.0S 74.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE POLEWARD RIDGE, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 36. INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOR- ABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//