** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 280016 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 79.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 12 UTC: 17.3S / 78.2E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 00 UTC: 18.0S / 77.2E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 280016 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 021/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 79.0E (SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LES QUADRANT SUD-EST ET NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/100 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 135 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 190 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 17.3S / 78.2E, VENT MAX = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 01/03/2006 A 00 UTC: 18.0S / 77.2E, VENT MAX = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER. IL A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-OUEST UN PEU AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE DANS CETTE DIRECTION DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT QUI RESTE FAVORABLE A SON INTENSIFICATION PUIS REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 280016 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 915 HPA POSITION: 16.4S / 79.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 135 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 12 UTC: 17.3S / 78.2E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/03/01 AT 00 UTC: 18.0S / 77.2E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280039 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 79.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6S/76.0E, MAX WIND=120KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY SYMETRIC, 250NM DIAMETER, WITH A SMALL EYE OF 15 NM DIAMETER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AND COLDER, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280039 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 79.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6S/76.0E, MAX WIND=120KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.5 THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY SYMETRIC, 250NM DIAMETER, WITH A SMALL EYE OF 15 NM DIAMETER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AND COLDER, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. . ** WTAU05 APRF 280102 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0101UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal six degrees South [20.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds expected to ease below 34 knots by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 28 February: Inland, within 60 nautical miles of 23.2 South 116.1 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 280102 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0101UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal six degrees South [20.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds expected to ease below 34 knots by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 28 February: Inland, within 60 nautical miles of 23.2 South 116.1 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 280111 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0110UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal six degrees South [20.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds expected to ease below 34 knots by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 28 February: Inland, within 60 nautical miles of 23.2 South 116.1 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 280111 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:20S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0110UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twenty decimal six degrees South [20.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal six degrees East [115.6E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas, moderate swell. Winds expected to ease below 34 knots by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 28 February: Inland, within 60 nautical miles of 23.2 South 116.1 East Central pressure 996 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH