** WTIO20 FMEE 271818 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 930 HPA POSITION: 15.9S / 79.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.7E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 17.7S / 77.7E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 271818 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 930 HPA POSITION: 15.9S / 79.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.7E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 18 UTC: 17.7S / 77.7E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 271818 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 020/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 27/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (CARINA) 930 HPA POSITION: 15.9S / 79.5E (QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LES QUADRANT SUD-EST ET NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/100 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 110 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 180 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.8S / 78.7E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.7S / 77.7E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT, SON ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE FAVORABLE. IL EST PREVU SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST PENDANT ENCORE 12 A 24 HEURES, AVANT DE REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 271825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1800 UTC : 15.9S / 79.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.7S/77.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 18.3S/76.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AGAIN, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271825 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1800 UTC : 15.9S / 79.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.7S/77.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 18.3S/76.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AGAIN, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. . ** WTAU05 APRF 271900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1858UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 50 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five degrees South [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal seven degrees East [115.7E] Recent movement south southeast at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0600UTC 28 February: Inland, within 70 nautical miles of 21.6 South 116.2 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 28 February: Well inland, within 80 nautical miles of 23.8 South 116.8 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1858UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 50 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five degrees South [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal seven degrees East [115.7E] Recent movement south southeast at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0600UTC 28 February: Inland, within 70 nautical miles of 21.6 South 116.2 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 28 February: Well inland, within 80 nautical miles of 23.8 South 116.8 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1858UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 50 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five degrees South [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal seven degrees East [115.7E] Recent movement south southeast at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0600UTC 28 February: Inland, within 70 nautical miles of 21.6 South 116.2 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 28 February: Well inland, within 80 nautical miles of 23.8 South 116.8 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271900 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1858UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 50 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal five degrees South [19.5S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal seven degrees East [115.7E] Recent movement south southeast at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0600UTC 28 February: Inland, within 70 nautical miles of 21.6 South 116.2 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 28 February: Well inland, within 80 nautical miles of 23.8 South 116.8 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 28 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS32 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 115.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 115.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 20.9S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 23.8S 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 115.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CON- VECTION HAS RECENTLY MOVED FROM THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 15S IS BEING STEERED IN A GENERAL POLEWARD DIRECTION BY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 18 HOURS AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 79.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 79.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.8S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.6S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.5S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 19.5S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTH- WESTERLY TRACK PAST TAU 12. INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DI- MINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//