** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 271213 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 00 UTC: 16.1S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 12 UTC: 16.8S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271214 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 16.1S/79.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.8S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.5S/74.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.0S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.3S/72.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS NOW CONSOLIDATED ; DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT THIS IS MORE PROBABLY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WARMING THAN TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTAU05 APRF 271254 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1252UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal nine degrees South [18.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal seven degrees East [114.7E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 35 knots. Central pressure 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271254 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1252UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal nine degrees South [18.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal seven degrees East [114.7E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 35 knots. Central pressure 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271326 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1323UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal nine degrees South [18.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal seven degrees East [114.7E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 35 knots. Central pressure 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. [ corrected ] At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271326 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1323UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude eighteen decimal nine degrees South [18.9S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal seven degrees East [114.7E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 35 knots. Central pressure 988 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. [ corrected ] At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIO30 FMEE 271214 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 16.1S/79.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.8S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.5S/74.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.0S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.3S/72.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS NOW CONSOLIDATED ; DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT THIS IS MORE PROBABLY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WARMING THAN TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 271213 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 00 UTC: 16.1S / 79.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 12 UTC: 16.8S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 271213 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 019/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 27/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 945 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 220 MN DANS LES QUADRANT SUD-EST ET NORD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 16.1S / 79.0E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 16.8S / 77.6E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT, SON ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE FAVORABLE. IL EST PREVU SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST PENDANT ENCORE 12 A 24 HEURES, AVANT DE REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD. . ** WTAU05 APRF 271609 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1605UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1500UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 45 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South [19.4S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East [114.9E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 271609 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1605UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1500UTC Tropical Cyclone Emma was located within 45 nautical miles of Latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South [19.4S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine degrees East [114.9E] Recent movement south at 12 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 986 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in eastern quadrants. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 25 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.6 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 28 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 23.7 South 114.9 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH