** WTIO20 FMEE 270617 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 946 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 18 UTC: 15.6S / 79.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.4S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270619 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.3S/73.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/72.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" SHOWED A BANDING EYE PATTERN FOR A FEW HOURS, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE EYE, THUS LEADING TO T=CI=5.5-. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270623 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 60H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.3S/73.7E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 72H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/72.2E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" SHOWED A BANDING EYE PATTERN FOR A FEW HOURS, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE EYE, THUS LEADING TO T=CI=5.5-. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270623 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 60H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.3S/73.7E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 72H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/72.2E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" SHOWED A BANDING EYE PATTERN FOR A FEW HOURS, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE EYE, THUS LEADING TO T=CI=5.5-. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. . ** WTAU05 APRF 270634 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0633UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC a tropical low was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal four degrees South [17.4S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal eight degrees East [114.8E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 992 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 40 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1800UTC 27 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.3 South 114.4 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.4 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1300 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 270634 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:17S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0633UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC a tropical low was located within 70 nautical miles of Latitude seventeen decimal four degrees South [17.4S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal eight degrees East [114.8E] Recent movement south at 13 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 992 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 140 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 40 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0600UTC 28 February. At 1800UTC 27 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.3 South 114.4 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 28 February: Within 110 nautical miles of 21.2 South 114.4 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1300 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIO30 FMEE 270619 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.3S/73.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/72.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" SHOWED A BANDING EYE PATTERN FOR A FEW HOURS, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE EYE, THUS LEADING TO T=CI=5.5-. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 270617 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 946 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 18 UTC: 15.6S / 79.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 06 UTC: 16.4S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 270617 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 018/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 27/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 946 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 200 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET 150 MN DANS LE SECTEUR NORD. OURAGAN 65/85 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 80 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 15.6S / 79.4E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.4S / 78.9E, VENT MAX = 95 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT, SON ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE FAVORABLE. IL EST PREVU SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST, AVANT DE REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST D'ICI 24 HEURES SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTIT UENT AU SUD. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 270900 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 79.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 79.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 16.1S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 17.1S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 17.9S 76.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 18.4S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 79.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE, AND A 27/0303Z SSMIS MIC- ROWAVE PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST SYMMETRIC WITHIN THE EYE- WALL. FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC 14S HAS BEEN STEERED ON AN ALMOST DUE POLEWARD TRACK BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 14S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SECONDARY ANTICYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OF TC 14S IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL THEN FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN THESE TWO ANTICYCLONES. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUT- FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//