** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270005 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0000 UTC : 14.5S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.4S/77.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.3S/74.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/73.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LAST IR SAT PICTURES SHOW AN EYE PATTERN THAT BARELY MAINTAINS. MW IMAGERY AQUA AT 2017Z CONFIRMS FEATURE SHOWN ON TRMM AT 1503Z; THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED, DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, AQUA AT 2017Z 37 GHZ SHOWS A MORE REGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST -SOUTHWESWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 270005 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 017/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 27/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: 14.5S / 79.8E (QUATORZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 220 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST ET 150 MN DANS LE SECTEUR NORD. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 15.2S / 79.3E, VENT MAX = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 28/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 15.8S / 78.5E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE ET SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT SUD-OUEST, PUIS AU DELA DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES REDRESSER OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD, ET ACCELERER. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEMEURE FAVORABLE A SON INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 270005 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: 14.5S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 12 UTC: 15.2S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 00 UTC: 15.8S / 78.5E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN BEYOND 24 HOURS, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 270005 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 955 HPA POSITION: 14.5S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 12 UTC: 15.2S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/28 AT 00 UTC: 15.8S / 78.5E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN BEYOND 24 HOURS, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270005 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0000 UTC : 14.5S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.4S/77.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.3S/74.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/73.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LAST IR SAT PICTURES SHOW AN EYE PATTERN THAT BARELY MAINTAINS. MW IMAGERY AQUA AT 2017Z CONFIRMS FEATURE SHOWN ON TRMM AT 1503Z; THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED, DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, AQUA AT 2017Z 37 GHZ SHOWS A MORE REGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST -SOUTHWESWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS.= ** WTAU05 APRF 270050 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:15S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0026UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC a tropical low was relocated to within 50 nautical miles of Latitude fifteen decimal six degrees South [15.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero degrees East [115.0E] Recent movement south at 11 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 996 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 30 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 27 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.5 South 115.1 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.2 South 114.1 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 270050 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:15S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0026UTC 27 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC a tropical low was relocated to within 50 nautical miles of Latitude fifteen decimal six degrees South [15.6S] Longitude one hundred and fifteen decimal zero degrees East [115.0E] Recent movement south at 11 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 996 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Winds within 30 nautical miles of the centre increasing to 40/50 knots with high seas and heavy swell by 0000UTC 28 February. At 1200UTC 27 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 17.5 South 115.1 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 28 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 19.2 South 114.1 East Central pressure 978 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIN20 DEMS 270547 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-02-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 13 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)