** WTIO20 FMEE 261809 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: 14.0S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 06 UTC: 14.7S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN BEYOND 36 HOURS, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 261809 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 016/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 26/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: 14.0S / 79.8E (QUATORZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 130 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD ET 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR NORD. OURAGAN 65/75KT ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.7S / 79.3E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 15.3S / 78.6E, VENT MAX = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE ET SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT SUD-OUEST, PUIS AU DELA DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES REDRESSER OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT AU SUD, ET ACCELERER. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEMEURE FAVORABLE A SON INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 261811 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 1800 UTC : 14.0S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/79.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.3S/78.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.6S/75.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.0S/73.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- LAST IR SAT PICTURES SHOW AN EYE PATTERN. BUT ON TRMM AT 1503Z, THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED; DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST -SOUTHWESWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 261809 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 960 HPA POSITION: 14.0S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 06 UTC: 14.7S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 18 UTC: 15.3S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SLOWLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN BEYOND 36 HOURS, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261811 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 1800 UTC : 14.0S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/79.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.3S/78.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.6S/75.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.0S/73.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- LAST IR SAT PICTURES SHOW AN EYE PATTERN. BUT ON TRMM AT 1503Z, THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED; DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST -SOUTHWESWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS.= ** WTAU05 APRF 261857 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S114E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1856UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC a tropical low was located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal eight degrees South [13.8S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal one degrees East [114.1E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 997 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 45/50 knots winds with high seas and heavy swell by 1800UTC 27 February. At 0600UTC 27 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.6 South 113.9 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 27 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.7 South 113.7 East Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 261857 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S114E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1856UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC a tropical low was located within 40 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal eight degrees South [13.8S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal one degrees East [114.1E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 997 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Within 20 nautical miles of the centre: 45/50 knots winds with high seas and heavy swell by 1800UTC 27 February. At 0600UTC 27 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.6 South 113.9 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 27 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.7 South 113.7 East Central pressure 982 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0100 UTC 27 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 262100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 79.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 79.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.9S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 15.8S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 16.2S 76.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 16.6S 74.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 79.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL EYE IN THE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, TRACKING SOUTH- WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.//