** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 261217 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 79.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 79.1E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 12 UTC: 14.8S / 78.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY. IT SHOULD GO ON ON THAT WAY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS IN A WEAKNESS OF HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 24 HOURS, IT SHOLUD TRACK MORE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST, IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE AND INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 261217 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 970 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 79.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 79.1E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 12 UTC: 14.8S / 78.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY. IT SHOULD GO ON ON THAT WAY GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS IN A WEAKNESS OF HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 24 HOURS, IT SHOLUD TRACK MORE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST, IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE AND INTENSIFY MORE CLEARLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 261217 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 015/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 26/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (CARINA) 970 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5S / 79.7E (TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. OURAGAN 65KT ET MER TRES GROSSE PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 14.2S / 79.1E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 14.8S / 78.3E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE ET SE DEPLACE TRES LENTEMENT. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE DANS CETTE DIRECTION GLOBALEMENT SUD-OUEST DANS UNE FAIBLESSE DES HAUTES PRESSSIONS. AU DELA DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, IL DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECOIRE PLUS A L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT LOIN AU SUD-OUEST, EN S'ACCELERANT ET EN S'INTENSI FINANT PLUS FRANCHEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 261249 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 79.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 045 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.2S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 14.8S/78.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.3S/77.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 15.6S/75.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 15.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 16.0S/72.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH TEMPORARILY VISIBLE EYE, LEADS TO CI=T=4.5. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY GLOBALY SOUTHWESTWARDS IN A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SLOWNESS OF ITS MOTION COULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWNESS OF ITS INTENSIFICATION. AT MEDIUM RANGE, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE MORE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH REBUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD THEN BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BETTER INTENSIFICATION, WEAKLY SHEARED , WITH GOOD POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OVER STILL WARM SST ( AROUND 28OC), WE HAVE TO INDICATE THAT ECMWF MODEL PERSITS WITH AN OTHER FORECAST AT MEDIUM RANGE, MAKING IT TRACK POLEWARDS, TOWARD A TROUGH, ON AND BEYOND THE 03/01.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261249 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 79.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 045 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 045 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.2S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 14.8S/78.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.3S/77.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 15.6S/75.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 15.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 16.0S/72.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH TEMPORARILY VISIBLE EYE, LEADS TO CI=T=4.5. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY GLOBALY SOUTHWESTWARDS IN A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SLOWNESS OF ITS MOTION COULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWNESS OF ITS INTENSIFICATION. AT MEDIUM RANGE, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE MORE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH REBUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD THEN BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BETTER INTENSIFICATION, WEAKLY SHEARED , WITH GOOD POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OVER STILL WARM SST ( AROUND 28oC), WE HAVE TO INDICATE THAT ECMWF MODEL PERSITS WITH AN OTHER FORECAST AT MEDIUM RANGE, MAKING IT TRACK POLEWARDS, TOWARD A TROUGH, ON AND BEYOND THE 03/01. . ** WTAU05 APRF 261257 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC a tropical low was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal seven degrees South [12.7S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal two degrees East [114.2E] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 997 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: 45/50 knots winds with high seas and heavy swell by 1200UTC 27 February. At 0000UTC 27 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.5 South 113.4 East Central pressure 990 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 27 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 South 112.9 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 261257 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC a tropical low was located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal seven degrees South [12.7S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal two degrees East [114.2E] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 997 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. Within 30 nautical miles of the centre: 45/50 knots winds with high seas and heavy swell by 1200UTC 27 February. At 0000UTC 27 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 14.5 South 113.4 East Central pressure 990 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 27 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.9 South 112.9 East Central pressure 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1900 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH