** WTIN20 DEMS 260601 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-02-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 12 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO20 FMEE 260623 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 06 UTC: 13.9S / 78.1E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 260623 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 014/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 26/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: 13.1S / 79.6E (TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.4S / 78.9E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 13.9S / 78.1E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA PEINE A S'ORGANISER, AVEC LA CONVECTION QUI PRESENTE DEPUIS LES DERNIERES HEURES UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDES. LE SYSTEME A RALENTI EN ADOPTANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DE LA NUIT. IL POURRAIT POURSUIVRE DANS CETTE DIRECTION SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, SANS SE DIRIGER VERS LE THALWEG TROP PEU MARQUE ET TROP ELOIGNE QUI TRANSITE AU SUD. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 260623 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 78.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 06 UTC: 13.9S / 78.1E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. . ** WTAU05 APRF 260640 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0638UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC a tropical low was relocated by satellite imagery to within 60 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal three degrees South [12.3S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal five degrees East [114.5E] Recent movement slowly southwards. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 998 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 26 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.6 South 114.2 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 27 February: Within 100 nautical miles of 15.8 South 113.7 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1300 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 260640 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S115E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0638UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC a tropical low was relocated by satellite imagery to within 60 nautical miles of Latitude twelve decimal three degrees South [12.3S] Longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal five degrees East [114.5E] Recent movement slowly southwards. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 998 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 26 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 13.6 South 114.2 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 27 February: Within 100 nautical miles of 15.8 South 113.7 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 1300 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIO30 FMEE 260641 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS)= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260641 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS) . ** WTIO30 FMEE 260643 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS)= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260643 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS) . ** WTIO30 FMEE 260643 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS) . ** WTXS31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 79.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 79.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.6S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.1S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.7S 77.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.3S 75.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 79.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND, AND CONVECTION REMAINS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT REMAINS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, HOWEVER, POLE- WARD OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO GREATLY DEVELOP. TC 14S WILL REMAIN OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//