** WTIO20 FMEE 260014 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 00 UTC: 15.1S / 78.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .= ** WTIO20 FMEE 260014 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 12 UTC: 14.4S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/27 AT 00 UTC: 15.1S / 78.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 260014 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 013/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 26/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (TREIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 14.4S / 79.2E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 27/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 15.1S / 78.7E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE BASSES COUCHES SONT MOINS FAVORABLES AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES, CE QUI EXPLIQUE QUE CARINA PEINE A S'ORGANISER. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION LENTE MAIS REGULIERE. IL POURRAIT A MOYENNE ECHEANCE VIRER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-EST EN DIRECTION D'UN TALWEG POLAIRE PRESENT EN BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 260019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/79.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 16.0S/78.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 17.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 19.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED MORE EASTERN. IT SHOWS ALSO THAT EVEN LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED , THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/79.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 16.0S/78.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 17.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 19.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED MORE EASTERN. IT SHOWS ALSO THAT EVEN LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED , THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 260024 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/79.2E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 16.0S/78.1E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 17.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 19.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED MORE EASTERN. IT SHOWS ALSO THAT EVEN LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED , THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260024 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/79.2E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 16.0S/78.1E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 17.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 19.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED MORE EASTERN. IT SHOWS ALSO THAT EVEN LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED , THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS .. . ** WTAU05 APRF 260139 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0125UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC tropical low located within 60 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal two degrees South [13.2S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero degrees East [116.0E] Recent movement south at 3 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 998 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200UTC 26 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.0 South 116.1 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 27 February: Within 100 nautical miles of 15.5 South 115.6 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 260139 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:13S116E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0125UTC 26 FEBRUARY 2006 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC tropical low located within 60 nautical miles of Latitude thirteen decimal two degrees South [13.2S] Longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero degrees East [116.0E] Recent movement south at 3 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 998 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 18 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200UTC 26 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.0 South 116.1 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 27 February: Within 100 nautical miles of 15.5 South 115.6 East Central pressure 986 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued at 0700 UTC 26 February 2006. WEATHER PERTH