** WTIO20 FMEE 251827 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 13.6S / 79.9E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT , BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 251827 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 13.6S / 79.9E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 18 UTC: 14.2S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT , BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251828 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.6S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.4S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR). BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. RECENT MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TRMM AT 1017UTC AND SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE EASTERN. MICROWAVES SSMI AT 1519UTC, LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE RANGE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 251828 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.6S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.4S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR). BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. RECENT MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TRMM AT 1017UTC AND SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE EASTERN. MICROWAVES SSMI AT 1519UTC, LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE RANGE.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 251827 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 25/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 012/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 25/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 972 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (TREIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 180 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 13.6S / 79.9E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 14.2S / 79.2E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE, MAIS LA CONVECTION PEINE ENCORE A S'ORGANISER. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE. LE GRAND FRAIS S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN VERS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 251838 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.6S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.7E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.4S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 72H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR). BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. RECENT MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TRMM AT 1017UTC AND SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE EASTERN. MICROWAVES SSMI AT 1519UTC, LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251838 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.6S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.7E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.4S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 72H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR). BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. RECENT MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TRMM AT 1017UTC AND SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE EASTERN. MICROWAVES SSMI AT 1519UTC, LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE RANGE. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 80.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 80.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 13.1S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 13.4S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 13.7S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.2S 77.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 80.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH TC 14S INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS TEMPORARILY HAMPERED OUTFLOW. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, AND TC 14S WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. MOREOVER, UPPER LEVEL STORM OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//