** WTIO20 FMEE 250616 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT . THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 250616 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT .. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 250616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 25/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 010/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 25/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2S / 80.0E (DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 500 DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE. LE GRAND FRAIS S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN VERS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 250621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT . THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 250621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT .. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 250622 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 250621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 25/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 010/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 25/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 976 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 500 DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 12.5S / 79.6E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 12.9S / 79.2E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE. LE GRAND FRAIS S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN VERS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 250632 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-02-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 10 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 80.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 80.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.3S 79.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 13.9S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.6S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 15.8S 77.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 79.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTEN- SIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, CAUSING TC 14S TO TURN POLEWARD AND WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//